For months, Israel has been negotiating with Hamas over a possible ceasefire in Gaza. The negotiations seem destined to fail, but Israel has been under pressure from the Biden administration and from the families of Israeli hostages to keep talking.
Here’s the obstacle to an agreement: Israel cannot agree to Hamas’ core demand — withdrawal from Gaza before the IDF finishes its job — and Hamas has little reason to release hostages in exchange for anything less than an Israeli withdrawal. Without a commitment to withdraw, a deal will likely only delay, not prevent, Hamas’ defeat.
There is, though, a sliver of a possibility for an agreement. Hamas might agree to a long ceasefire in order (1) to obtain the release of hundreds, if not thousands, of its terrorists from Israeli prisons and (2) to see if the long ceasefire leads to a permanent one, thanks to pressure on Israel from Joe Biden.
Israel ought not agree to a deal like this one for three reasons. First, what’s the point of going into Rafah to kill Hamas terrorists — at the cost more deaths to IDF forces — only to allow large numbers of Hamas terrorists to return, one day, to the fray?
Second, a long ceasefire will lead to more U.S. pressure for a permanent one. Even assuming, as I do, that Israel will resist that pressure, doing so will further alienate Joe Biden and his team.
Third, and relatedly, the sooner Israel finishes the job in Gaza, the sooner it can move past this wretched situation. Israel will no longer need to be on a war footing. It will no longer face daily criticism for fighting the war. And Gaza will be able to begin rebuilding.
However, Israel would be hard pressed to reject a temporary ceasefire for the same reasons it has seen fit to keep negotiating — pressure from Team Biden and from the families of hostages.
This is the context against which the most recent “potential breakthrough” in negotiations should be analyzed. On Sunday, Hamas launched a rocket attack from Rafah at a border crossing through which aid to Gazans has been flowing. Four Israeli soldiers were killed in the attack.
Having had enough, Israel announced its intention, finally, to move on Rafah — Hamas’ last stronghold. To this end, it warned residents of parts of Rafah to evacuate. (This warning, consistent with Israel’s practice throughout the war, shows far more solicitude for civilians than is normal during war, including by the U.S.)
Hamas, fearing that the stalling game was up, responded in its usual worm-like way by claiming it had accepted a ceasefire proposal from Qatari and Egyptian negotiators. It’s not clear, at least to me, what that proposal was. Maybe it was the one submitted last week for a an “initial” 40-day ceasefire, during which Israeli troops would suspend combat operations and withdraw from populated areas, and Hamas would begin releasing hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian terrorists held in Israeli prisons at the same time. Maybe not.
IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari responded to Hamas’ proposal, whatever it is, by stating: “We are considering any response and any answer in the most serious way and are pursuing every possibility for negotiations to return the hostages as quickly as possible.” He added, however, that “in parallel, we are continuing to maneuver in the Gaza Strip,” by which I hope he means preparing to move on Rafah.
That’s the politically correct response Israel must make to pacify Team Biden. But there are reports that, privately, Israeli officials are deriding Hamas’ proposal as one previously floated by Egypt that’s unacceptable to Israel.
To me, there’s a bright line here. Either Hamas is accepting a ceasefire that’s only temporary, which would represent a change in position, or it’s holding out, as it consistently has, for an Israeli evacuation of Gaza before the IDF finishes its job.
In the latter case, the proposal is a non-starter. In the former case, Israel should reject the deal for the reasons I presented above, but might feel compelled to accept it (perhaps with modifications).
Ed Morrissey thinks Hamas isn’t agreeing to anything new, and is just trying to induce the mainstream media to blame Israel for the continuation of the war. Little inducement is required, but Hamas did take heat for the Sunday attack on the border crossing.
Ed is probably right. And Israel shouldn’t worry about media spin. The sooner it ends this war through military victory, the sooner Israel will recede, albeit only partially, from the media’s radar — and from Joe Biden’s.
NOTE: If there are new developments of significance in this saga today, I will update my post.
There is NOTHING Israel can do to placate the Biden administration except lose the war. To quote Churchill (who was referring to Neville Chamberlain) "In thar dusty soul there is nothing but abject surrender."
I read this piece yesterday in the Wall Street Journal and it broke my heart for what might have been (and what still could be adopted and save many lives in the next months.)
It's a dimension (opening up the entire Sinai for camps for **temporary** Rafah refugees) that one doesn't hear talked about much. Of course there's a complete legacy media blackout on the subject. I recommend the piece to everybody. I suppose the Egyptians don't believe the refugees would go back to the Gaza Strip, but as the author of this piece stresses Biden has leverage with them he refuses to use.
(https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-worst-mistake-of-the-gaza-war-901efb25)