After the Matt Gaetz S-Show

Some say that Rep. Matt Gaetz accomplished nothing by bringing down Kevin McCarthy. But Erick Erickson argues, persuasively I think, that Gaetz accomplished more than simply pulling off a historic feat.

Erickson argues that, by doing so, Gaetz has reduced the power of House conservatives and increased the power of House moderates. He has therefore paved the way for more federal spending and more U.S. aid to Ukraine

Clearly, Gaetz didn’t intend to do these things, although whether he actually cares is open to question. Yet, they are the likely consequences of toppling McCarthy.

Here, in Erickson’s words, is why:

House Republicans, who oppose Ukraine funding, are about to choke on it. The moderate Republicans sucked it up and put up with a deal that put House Freedom Caucus conservatives on the Rules Committee and Appropriations Committee. They went along with a House Freedom Caucus measure to cut the government by eight percent.

The House moderate Republicans have zero incentive to stick with the Freedom Caucus now on anything, the latter of which is divided anyway — in fact more divided that the moderates are on some big issues right now. The moderates want to fund Ukraine and have way more than 218 votes . . . .

You guys who oppose the Ukraine funding are about to have it jammed down your throat thanks to Gaetz ousting McCarthy without a backup Speaker in the wings to challenge a pro-Ukraine Senate and House majority.

The House GOP moderates, who outnumber the eight who ended McCarthy, can, among other options, do a discharge petition with the Democrats to force through any funding on Ukraine they want now. They are off the chains.

(Emphasis added)

I favor more aid for Ukraine and therefore consider Gaetz’s inadvertent accomplishment positive to that extent. However, the empowerment of GOP House moderates comes with a huge downside if, like me, you want to see government spending reduced.

[House GOP moderates] can also force the House GOP Conference to change the rules package McCarthy agreed to to get conservative votes. It was that package of rules that put House Freedom Caucus members on the Rules and Appropriations Committees.

Just think about this for one minute. Had Gaetz waited till the final continuing resolution to take shape in about thirty five days, he could have used the leverage to push for more. He could have been joined in a larger revolt of House conservatives with him.

But now? At this time? He all but ensures the chaos plays against the conservative hand. McCarthy was always going to get the boot. But booting him now only helps the big spenders.

You guys who wanted to oust McCarthy because you felt he wasn’t keeping his end of the deal, will now watch a new deal be constructed and new deals grow government. That’s exactly what Gaetz has ensured. The moderate Republicans were willing to work with the conservatives in exchange for McCarthy as Speaker and reasonable concessions. The poo flingers just covered the Conference in feces, so it is game on for everyone else.

To put this more bluntly, conservatives: bend over and get ready. Matt Gaetz just ensured a miserable next year for conservatives in the House. And yes, he, not McCarthy, did that.

(Emphasis added)

We don’t know who will be the next Speaker, when he will be selected, or what deals he will cut to gain the Speakership. But it seems unlikely that whoever becomes the next Speaker will cut deals as favorable to Gaetz as the ones McCarthy agreed to. Not after what Gaetz did to McCarthy.

Therefore, Erickson is probably right when he concludes:

Matt Gaetz squandered conservatives’ leverage now, when a larger rebellion of more serious conservatives could have shaped the final spending package over the next month.

That’s cause for dismay among genuine conservatives, but perhaps a matter of indifference for Matt Gaetz.