An update from Georgia
A longtime reader and Georgia Republican insider has sent me his take on the two big races in Georgia — for the Senate and for Governor. This reader correctly predicted all of the tight Georgia races in 2000 and 2001 (the Senate runoffs). He did not predict Brad Raffensperger’s victory in the Secretary of State primary this summer but was more upbeat about Raffensperger’s chances of overcoming the wrath of Trump than most observers were.
As of now, our reader does not disagree with the conventional wisdom that Governor Kemp and Senator Warnock will prevail over Stacey Abrams and Herschel Walker. However, he sees both races as a little tighter than indicated by the poll averages.
He writes:
Kemp has solid momentum and I think he will pull it off, likely by a larger margin than 2018. I think 51-49 or 52-48 is likely in the cards for him.
He is making his case of the economic success [resulting from] keeping the state open during COVID, and as the law and order Governor who used the State Patrol to fill the gaps when the Atlanta mayor [imposed] a “no chase” order on her police department that caused crime to erupt.
He has been helped by a few rare Abrams missteps—taking an unmasked photo with a group of masked children (while fighting for mask mandates) and saying GA is “one of the worst” states to live in.
Walker is a household name here in GA and has legendary status. His campaign has struggled as various personal baggage (three previously unknown children, etc) has come to light along, with a number of other missteps from an inexperienced candidate.
Warnock, on the other hand, has phenomenal ‘puppy dog and ice cream videos’ that hide his radical policies and effectively present him as a nice guy, which is also aided by a swooning media, of course.
If I had to call this one today, it will be Warnock winning by the same margin as Kemp—51-49 or 52-48.
I went to back-to-back fundraisers for each candidate last week and the anecdotal evidence supports this. Despite his celebrity status, there were 40 people at the Walker event and about 200 people at the Kemp event.
Our reader’s analysis seems sound. However, if I’m right, the Senate contest is probably more fluid than the race for Governor.
Kemp vs. Abrams is a rematch. Both figures are very well known and voter opinion about the two is probably locked in.
Walker is a newcomer to politics. Thus, voter opinion about him may not have hardened, at least not to the same extent as it has for Abrams.
If so, Walker has a better chance than Abrams of coming from behind (but also a better chance of being blown out).