At this point, you have to think that Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be their parties’ candidates next year. Each has a huge lead. This has led me to stockpile digestion aids.
But signs are beginning to appear that hoping for something better is not just a pipedream.
First, let’s take today’s news about Joe. It’s pretty stark.
The AP — no one’s version of Redstate — reports:
Americans actually agree on something in this time of raw discord: Joe Biden is too old to be an effective president in a second term. Only a few years his junior, Donald Trump raises strikingly less concern about his age….
A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds much of the public oddly united in sizing up the one trait Biden cannot change.
Well, actually, he can change it. And will. He’ll get older every day, and the rate of decline tends to accelerate, sometimes quickly, when you get past 80. That this is an unpleasant fact for those of us who’ll be there soon enough does make it any less a fact.
In the poll, fully 77% said Biden is too old to be effective for four more years. Not only do 89% of Republicans say that, so do 69% of Democrats. That view is held across age groups, not just by young people, though older Democrats specifically are more supportive of his 2024 bid.
When more than two-thirds of your own party say you’re too old for the job, and three-quarters of independents (where the election will be decided) say the same thing, you’re in trouble. Gavin Newsom, put down the Brylcreem and your edition of Das Kapital and get ready for action. That debate with Ron DeSantis might be closer than you think.
What’s clear from the poll is that Americans are saying out with the old and in with the young, or at least younger.
Democrats, Republicans and independents want to sweep a broad broom through the halls of power, imposing age limits on the presidency, Congress and the Supreme Court. In all about two-thirds of U.S. adults back an age ceiling on candidates for president and Congress and a mandatory retirement age for justices.
Actually, the case for an age limit on Justices was on display decades ago, when William O. Douglas kept re-appearing at the Court for years after his colleagues had persuaded him to retire.
Some of the survey results were not without their humor.
The AP-NORC survey went beyond posing questions and presenting choices. It also had a word association exercise, asking people to offer the first word or phrase that comes to mind at the mention of each man.
The answers underscored how age is a particular drag for Biden across party lines, even when people aren’t prompted to think about that, and how Trump largely escapes that only to draw disdain if not disgust on other fronts.
In those visceral responses, 26% mentioned Biden’s age and an additional 15% used words such as “slow” or “confused.” One Republican thought of “potato.” Among Democrats, Biden’s age was mentioned upfront by 28%. They preferred such terms over “president,” “leader,” “strong” or “capable.” One who approves of his performance nevertheless called him “senile.”
Only 3% in the survey came up with “confused” as the first descriptor for Trump, and a mere 1% used “old” or the like. Instead, the top words were those like “corrupt” or “crooked” (15%), “bad” and other generally negative terms (11%), words such as “liar” and “dishonest” (8%), along with “good” and other generally positive comments (8%).
The bad news for Trump appeared on a couple of fronts today. First, The Hill reported, “Trump drops 6 points in post-debate GOP poll.” Others candidates, in particular DeSantis, Haley and Pence, gained slightly. Trump still has a big lead, but it’s hard to see how it has anyplace to go but down. Those who find his bluster (or boldness if you prefer) appealing are already in the fold, and those who don’t are unlikely to be won over as the worst moments of his Presidency get put on display day after day after day in court over these next few months.
Second and relatedly, Bloomberg reports on a FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post poll with this straw in the wind (emphasis added):
The key finding in the survey…was that each of the eight candidates [in last week’s debate] gained in a critical question: whether debate-watchers would “consider” voting for them in upcoming primaries and caucuses. It’s a good question because the debate to some extent simulates the effects of a campaign….[M]ost voters have barely paid attention to nomination politics so far. The first event in Iowa is still months away, and most Americans won’t be voting — or exposed to heavy advertising and campaigning until February and March. With the exception of Trump and perhaps former Vice President Mike Pence, these are not yet familiar candidates to most voters.
Some of the increases were marginal…But immediately after the debate, 50% of those polled said they would consider supporting Haley, compared to 30% who said they would before the event. And those who said they would support DeSantis increased from 63% to just over two-thirds, a smaller but perhaps even more consequential increase. Meanwhile, all three candidates the pollsters asked about who weren’t on stage saw their support drop, including Trump, who lost about five percentage points and fell below DeSantis on that measure.
I don’t know that I fully agree with this analysis. It may well be that “most voters” haven’t been paying a lot of attention so far, but I sense that most primary voters (a much, much smaller slice) and certainly most caucus goers have been paying plenty of attention. Still, there is something here, and for those of us hoping that Republicans nominate someone other than Trump, these are small but realistic signs of hope.