Biden delivered the most embarrassing performance ever in a presidential debate.

Where do the Democrats go from here?

It has been said, wisely, that a candidate can’t win a presidential debate in the first half hour, but can lose it that soon. Yesterday, Joe Biden lost his debate with Donald Trump in the first fifteen minutes.

Forget Gerald Ford saying the Soviets don’t dominate Eastern Europe. Forget Jimmy Carter’s citation of his 13-year-old daughter’s views on nuclear weapons. Joe Biden’s claim that he “beat Medicare” has to be the worst moment any presidential candidate has had in a debate. Other incoherent moments surely come in second and third.

Trump looked better than Biden; he spoke better than Biden.; he lied better than Biden. Only on the last count was it remotely close.

Biden’s performance improved as the debate went on. He might even have reached the level of borderline competence. It doesn’t matter. The debate was irretrievably lost in the first fifteen minutes.

There was one dimension to Biden’s performance that may have gone unnoticed. When he was responding to questions from the CNN hosts, Biden rambled, stumbled, misstated, and sometimes lost his train of thought. When he was responding to Trump’s attacks, he was largely on point and at times stinging.

It seems that only his hatred of Trump enables Biden to roll back the years to a time when he could hold his own in a debate.

This observation has relevance as I move on to the two key questions in the aftermath of the debate: (1) Will the Democrats launch a concerted effort to deprived Biden of the nomination and (2) If so, can they make this happen.

The answer to the first question depends, I think, on how the polling goes. If polls show Biden falling well behind Trump, the Democrats’ thirst for power might well impel them to do what they can to replace Biden.

Will the polls show this? It’s hard to say.

Most Americans, including a goodly percentage of Democrats, already believed that Biden lacked the mental capacity to serve as president. To that extent, what we witnessed last night was merely a confirmation of what we already believed.

Yet, seeing Biden’s limitations play out so starkly is likely to move the needle in Trump’s favor to some degree. Whether the needle will move far enough to produce a concerted effort to deprive Biden of the nomination is anyone’s guess.

The other question is whether, even with a concerted effort, Biden could be replaced. As I understand it, the overwhelming majority of delegates to the Democratic convention are legally bound to vote for Biden.

Therefore, unless Biden bows out, it’s hard for me to see a scenario in which he would be replaced. Couple the downside of what would amount to an ugly coup with lack of appeal of Kamala Harris, the most obvious replacement for Biden, and the case for even attempting a removal becomes weak.

So for me, the question of replacing Biden probably comes down to whether he can be persuaded to withdraw from the race.

I assume that Biden enjoys being president and that his ego is heavily invested in staying president. Thus, persuading him to abandon the job would be difficult. But if he falls so far behind in the polls that his chances of retaining the office become obviously slim, those close to him could argue that by withdrawing, he can keep the man he hates from becoming president.

There would be a nice symmetry to this argument. Biden claims (falsely, I’m pretty sure) that he entered the 2020 race because, after Charlottesville, he saw the necessity of defeating Trump. Perhaps he could be persuaded to exit the 2024 race for the same reason.

Perhaps. But it’s at least as likely that Biden’s hatred of Trump would provide the motivation to stay in the race, rather than to turn tail and quit after a bruising confrontation with his nemesis.

If I had to bet, I’d bet that Biden will remain the Democrats’ nominee. If so, last night’s debate was the best of all possible worlds for Trump: He thrashes Biden, but does not knock him out of the race.

But the latter of these two outcomes is uncertain.

NOTE: This post has been edited slightly to clean up a few typos in the original version.