Biden's attempts to dissuade Israel from attacking Rafah are foolish.
Holding off from an attack is bad for Gaza, bad for Israel, and bad for Biden.
Sometimes the obvious solution to a problem is also the correct one. And sometimes it’s so obvious that people miss it.
The way to ameliorate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the political problem the war in Gaza has raised for Joe Biden is hiding in plain sight. It’s to let Israel get on with the business of crushing Hamas in Rafah.
But instead of choosing this course, Team Biden is trying hard to persuade (or even coerce) Israel not to follow it. Biden purported to establish attacking Rafah as a “red line” Israel couldn’t cross. He tries to lay down conditions that would limit the effectiveness of such an attack. He keeps calling for a ceasefire.
All of this is counterproductive, both as a humanitarian matter and a political one.
Why is attacking Hamas in Rafah the best way to ameliorate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza? Because the grave humanitarian crisis will persist as long as the war does. And because Israel will not end the war until it has taken out the last Hamas brigades, the ones holed up in Rafah. Israel come too far, expending an enormous amount of resources and alienating much of the world (along with a good chunk of America), to quit before finishing the job.
The end of the fighting, or its sharp deceleration, will bring an end to the large-scale killing of civilians. Ending the fighting will also make it much easier to provide humanitarian assistance. Food will flow to Gaza much more readily. Hospitals will become fully functional. And so forth.
An end to the war is also Biden’s best hope for minimizing the political damage it has caused him. As long as bombs are falling in Gaza, the war is a constant reminder to those who hate Israel that, under Biden, America has supplied the weapons killing Palestinians and causing them to be “on the verge” of starvation. If the war ends before the 2024 voting begins, it’s far less likely to be front-and-center in the minds of voters trying to decide whether to punish Biden.
(Trump, as one would expect, is playing his hand more intelligently than Biden. He criticizes Israel, thus perhaps influencing some of those who hate it not to vote for Biden. But substantively, his line — that Israel needs to finish what it started —is exactly right.)
Biden does, of course, have an alternative to getting out of Israel’s way as means of trying to win back defectors among the anti-Israel crowd. He can stop supplying Israel with weaponry.
But this course is likely to be viewed as an empty gesture as long as Israel is striking civilians in Gaza and Gazans are said to be starving. And Israel will keep striking with or without new shipments of weapons from America. Pulling the plug on Israel might also alienate some of Biden’s Jewish supporters.
It’s better for everyone (other than Hamas) if the war ends by summertime. Better for Gazans, better for Israelis, and better for Biden.
But, again, the war will only end when Israel has finished taking out Hamas’ last brigades.
Yes, it is the obvious move. So why is Israel waiting?
Biden's team is made up of genuine idiots. I cant think of any other thing to describe them. Paul is entirely correct. Except I don't accept Trump's statement either. It's morally compromised. I don't believe in giving signals to Israel haters just to get votes from them whether Trump does it or Biden does it. The correct posture is that of John Fetterman. Period.