Can Harris Beat Trump With Such Weak Voter Support For Her Signature Policies?

You bet, because policy debate seems to have disappeared from the campaign.

Let me start with my conclusion. Harris can win, and probably will, because she’s provided the electorate with what it seems to have wanted above all else — an alternative to choosing between a candidate too old and broken down for the job, and the other candidate, not exactly a spring chicken either, and who is his own version of old and grating news.

Before Biden’s exit, it had become something of a commonplace that if it were a choice between Biden and X, or a choice between Trump and X, X would win. This was so simply because X would show up without the tons of baggage — admittedly different sorts of baggage — Biden and Trump each have. X would doubtless have his (or her) own baggage, but at least it would be new baggage, not the black cloud we’ve been living under for what seems like forever.

Enter Ms. X, ‘Cacklin Kamala Harris.

Let me be clear: My own test for deciding whom to support is simply to look at the record and pick who is likely to be best (or least bad) for the country. For a conservative like me, the answer is clear if not particularly welcome. For all his self-absorption, meandering bile, casual dishonesty, and just plain nastiness, the answer is Trump. We had a good economy until COVID came along, low inflation, tax cuts, no wars, and the best Supreme Court of my lifetime. And the governing Republican party was neither anti-American, anti-white, nor (in the ways that count) anti-Semitic. All that outweighs Trump’s considerable negatives, and it certainly outweighs the menacing Amerika Stinks undertow of the Democratic Party and its embrace of so much that’s Woke and/or diversionary and/or culturally/racially toxic, not to mention dangerous in a world increasingly aflame.

Even with all Trump’s obvious downsides, I confess to being mystified that the electorate now seems more likely to choose Harris on the basis of “vibes,” whatever that is. But that’s what the current lay of the land tells me. Part of the reason for this is (need I say it?) the MSM, the same MSM that plays her as “exciting” and “bold” (and not unrelatedly played Joe as sharp as a tack; partisan dissembling long ago became its way of life). Another part of the reason is that we’ve had roughly three generations of dumbed-down “education” — “education” that’s produced many millions of people who think that how nifty you look on TikTok or Oprah is what counts, not what you’ll do for, or to, the country. And there’s Trump himself, playing the perpetual victim/hero and, most of all, determined to grab the spotlight when he knows (or absolutely should know) that the candidate who has the spotlight is the candidate who will lose. Scrutiny is that last thing you want in this campaign, as it didn’t take Gov. Walz long to find out.

So what will turn this thing around? Probably nothing to be honest, but if anything will, it’s to point out at three zillion decibels how Harris’s thinking is so very different from America’s. She is, literally and figuratively, a San Francisco Democrat. It’s perfectly fair, and needed, to hang her record around her neck.

Here’s just part of it, taken from an article whose title I’ve hijacked as the title of this entry.

While presidential candidate Kamala Harris avoids media questions about her proposed policies, both she and her progressive allies in the Democratic Party are already on record as favoring a number of highly controversial proposals, ranging from defunding the police to free college education. But do average Americans agree?

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Do Americans support or oppose these 11 progressive policy ideas, supported or proposed by Harris?

1. “The defund the police movement.”

Voters strongly opposed this idea, 64% to 27%. All major political parties opposed it: Democrats (52% oppose, 39% support), Republicans (76% to 17%), independents (66% to 22%). Surges in crime rates around the country as local governments slashed police spending proved to be highly unpopular with voters. A classic quality of life issue.

Harris’ choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz may hurt her at the polls. During the 2020 riots, Walz allowed the rampant violence to continue before calling in the National Guard, leading to an increase in crime and massive destruction of property. Minneapolis turned seemingly overnight from a quiet, peaceful midwestern city into a violent, politically riven and racialized urban zone.

This is a particularly strong issue with suburban women. Trump needn’t win that cohort, but peeling away some of Harris’s support could make the difference in close, key states like Wisconsin and Michigan — and thus make the difference in the election.

2. “Fracking for oil.”

Fracking has had a lot of bad PR, and it shows. Overall, those who support it (39%) are roughly the same statistically as those who oppose it (41%). But it plays poorly with Democrats, who oppose fracking by 51% to 31%, and independents, who reject it by 42% to 33%. Only Republicans show enthusiasm, with 31% opposing fracking but a solid 53% majority supporting it.

Many economic studies show solid benefits from fracking, especially for local communities. But the greatest benefits of all rarely get weighed in cost-benefit studies: The very real benefit of U.S. energy independence and the prospect of lower energy costs for average Americans, now suffering a fourth year of damaging inflation.

Although the country as a whole is pretty much evenly divided, some states clearly support fracking. Perhaps the most important in this election, Pennsylvania, is one of them. (This is not to mention that it’s sound policy for America’s energy independence).

3. “Abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).”

This idea is opposed by 65%, supported by just 22%, making it the least popular of all the ideas supported by Harris and Walz. And it’s bipartisan, with 56% of Democrats, 75% of Republicans and 66% of independents opposing the idea of shutting down our only border guard, apart from the U.S. military.

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Harris once likened ICE to the Ku Klux Klan, even as illegal immigrants continued to cross the U.S. border by the thousands. Some 7.2 million to 10 million illegals have flowed into the U.S. during the Biden-Harris administration. The record of Harris, put in charge of the illegal immigration issue, hasn’t improved lately. The Biden-Harris administration let nearly 100 people on the Terror Watchlist into the country, according to a congressional study, while also allowing in “tens of thousands of migrants from countries that could present national security risks – including 2,134 Afghan nationals, 33,347 Chinese nationals, 541 Iranian nationals, 520 Syrian nationals, and 3,104 Uzbek nationals.”

This is the No. 1 issue according to many polls. Trump’s stance on it has been consistent. If he can’t win stressing this, he can’t win at all.

4. “The death penalty for cop killers.”

This is another highly popular idea. Some 60% of Americans support it, versus 28% who oppose it. A majority of all the major political affiliations support the idea: Dems (52%), GOP (69%) and independents/third parties (58%). Strong bipartisan support.

Unfortunately for Harris, she has become identified with this issue – but on the other side. While running for San Francisco district attorney in 2004, Harris’ spokesperson said she “would never seek the death penalty.” She later proved it when David Hill, a gang member, killed a police officer named Isaac Espinoza. The murder sparked widespread outrage. “Two days after Espinoza’s death and two days before Espinoza’s funeral, Harris . . . announced that she would not seek the death penalty for Hill,” reported ABC News. Politically, Harris is clearly on the wrong side of this issue.

5. “Health insurance for illegal aliens.”

This is another sore spot for American voters, 62% oppose the idea, while 28% support it. Soaring costs for medical care have sensitized voters to the idea of people coming here for essentially free care, at taxpayer expense.

This is another issue where (1) the huge majority of the electorate is on the morally correct side, and (2) is on Trump’s side.

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To sum it up, Trump’s job from here on in is easy to describe: Quit talking about yourself and start talking about the issues that affect voters’ lives — issues where Kamala is dead meat.

Can Trump bring himself to change course? I suspect the answer to that is similar to the answer when asked if I’ll be playing center for the Lakers next year….

….well, a little more hopeful than that, I suppose. And a good thing too, since a lot of our future depends on it.