The focus of the upcoming mid-term elections is on the GOP’s quest to regain a majority in the House (very likely) and the Senate (even money, roughly). We should also pay close attention to the Florida gubernatorial race.
Not because there’s great doubt about the outcome. Ron DeSantis seems likely to prevail. The big question is, by how much.
That question might loom large when it comes to the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, especially in light of reports that DeSantis reportedly has decided not to ask for Donald Trump’s endorsement in the race. (More on that below.) The bigger a DeSantis win, the more he’ll look like the winner Republicans’ crave.
In 2018, DeSantis squeaked out a victory over Andrew Gillum, who has since been indicted on 21 felony counts. The margin of victory was around 30,000 out of more than 8 million votes cast.
Donald Trump had a big hand in DeSantis’s victory. I think it’s fair to say that without Trump’s endorsement, DeSantis would not be governor of Florida today.
Trump himself has run well in Florida. In 2016, he carried the state by more than 100,000 votes. In 2020, he increased that narrow margin to nearly 400,000. The split was 51.1 for Trump and 47.9 for Biden.
DeSantis will want to exceed Trump’s 51 percent mark by a goodly amount. What’s the likelihood that he will?
DeSantis leads his likely opponent, Charlie Crist (yeah, that guy) by 9 points in the Real Clear Politics poll average. A victory by that margin would serve the governor pretty well. However, this average is based on polls conducted as early as last August and no later than February of this year.
A more recent survey, taken in May by Donald Trump’s pollster, had DeSantis and Crist even. In June, the same pollster found DeSantis with only a small lead. However, these polls were of registered voters, not likely ones. RCP apparently didn’t consider the polls trustworthy enough to include in its average.
It’s hard to reconcile them with DeSantis’ approval rating. This Spring, it was in the mid-50s. Election analyst Harry Enten observes that governors with approval ratings over 50 percent in states won by their party in the previous election rarely lose.
I will be particularly interested in how DeSantis does with suburban voters, especially women. These are the voters that, as a group, turned against the GOP in 2018 and against Trump in 2020.
Another area of interest is Duval County, the Jacksonville area. In this century, Duval County has leaned Republican. However, in recent years it has become more racially and ethnically diverse, and DeSantis lost Duval to Gillam in 2018, albeit by only 1 percentage point. Biden carried the county by nearly 4 points, and registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by about 6 points.
This Washington Post article suggests that DeSantis has a good shot at winning Duval County. If he does, this too will serve him well.
Meanwhile, as noted above, DeSantis reportedly has decided not to ask Trump for an endorsement. Politico reports:
According to four people connected to the governor and former president, DeSantis has not asked Trump for a formal endorsement and isn’t planning to. It’s a clear sign that DeSantis, who more than four years ago was a little-known congressman from northeast Florida, has risen high in the GOP stratosphere.
DeSantis’ reluctance to seek the former president’s public support comes as the Florida governor prepares for a likely 2024 White House bid, even if Trump also runs in 2024 — setting up a potential clash between two powerful figures in the GOP.
As far as I can tell, DeSantis hasn’t denied this report. It seems likely that his team planted it.
David Von Drehle views the governor’s move as an opening salvo against Trump — “an intentional humiliation of a man who hates humiliation” and “a declaration of independence from a man who thrives on dependence.” It’s hard to disagree with this assessment.
DeSantis seems intent on taking the fight to Trump, rather than waiting for Trump to come after him. He must have watched in 2016 as Trump took out Republican stars one after the other by going on the attack first. Why not hit Trump first?
Here’s a reason — the only one I can think of. If DeSantis wins the Republican nomination, Trump can play the spoiler by running as a third candidate. Trying to humiliate the former president seemingly increases the likelihood that Trump will do so.
Perhaps DeSantis doesn’t see it this way. Maybe he believes Trump’s going to do what Trump’s going to do.
Or maybe he sees Trump becoming such a spent force that the ex-president won’t have enough backing to risk the humiliation of a weak third-candidate run. DeSantis might believe that taking it to Trump, rather than sitting back, will help the spent-force project along.
In any event, the governor’s decision to make known his indifference to the Trump endorsement that so many Republicans covet is a bold move. And it’s in keeping with DeSantis’ image as an aggressive fighter — an image that any Republican who wants to replace Trump at the top of the party must cultivate.