DeSantis Takes Off

The betting markets have Ron DeSantis ahead of Donald Trump as the likely Republican nominee two years from now. From the fellow who runs Real Clear Politics, I came across one stark illustration of why this is so:

Trump’s troubles are also spelled out in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll covered in this story. Among the more notable points are:

By 2-1, GOP and GOP-leaning voters now say they want Trump's policies but a different standard-bearer to carry them. While 31% want the former president to run, 61% prefer some other Republican nominee who would continue the policies Trump has pursued.

They have a name in mind: Two-thirds of Republicans and those inclined to vote Republican want Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president. By double digits, 56% to 33%, they prefer DeSantis over Trump. 

"Republicans and conservative independents increasingly want Trumpism without Trump," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

I understand why people are skeptical when they hear an academic use a phrase like “Trumpism without Trump.” Among most of academia, and of course the press, that’s a pejorative. It’s used to mean someone who’s nasty, ill-tempered, sleazy and narcissistic and just hides it better. But that’s not what it actually means, understood free from the liberal shading. It means someone who thinks and acts like America is a force for good in the world, and has more than a little doubt about where the elites in this country have spent decades leading our culture and politics — leading with their race huckstering, endless tax-and-spend adventures, contempt for normal family and sexual mores, and, of late, COVID-based excuses for running your life.

Some Republican strategists blame Trump and his influence for the GOP's failure to win control of the Senate in November. Candidates he helped recruit and support in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania lost races that independent analysts thought might have been won by more traditional candidates. 

This is, I think, a good point, and one that will gain more traction as we see the Administration escape the Perils-of-Pauline close calls when Biden nominates far Left judicial candidates. Any moderating force Joe Manchin had — which wasn’t much — is over with. And Sen. Sinema, who voted with Biden 90% of the time anyway, will continue to caucus with the Democrats.

The first rule of the game is that politics punishes losers. Trump backed a bunch of them, and it’s going to have a cost that Republicans will notice and dislike.

Trump is viewed less favorably by his partisans as well [as registered voters generally]. The percentage of Republicans who see him favorably has dropped from 75% in October to 64% in December. His unfavorable rating has risen to 23% from 18%.

Among all voters, Trump has fallen further behind President Joe Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head rematch. Now, Biden would win a general election matchup by 47% to 40%. (Because of the effects of rounding, Biden's margin is a bit wider than that indicates, at 7.8 points.) In October, Biden also led but by a narrower margin, 46%-42%.

And here’s the kicker:

While Biden now leads Trump, he trails DeSantis in a head-to-head race, with DeSantis at 47% and Biden at 43%. 

The Florida governor, who last month sailed to a second term in the Sunshine State, has significant standing nationwide. Two-thirds of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, 65%, want him to run for president in 2024. Just 24% hope he doesn't.

The second rule of the game is that politics is about addition not subtraction. Because of his behavior, his advancing age, and his continuing legal issues (some of which can be laid to Democratic political bile but some of which can’t), Trump virtually never adds backers and instead, as time goes by, subtracts them.

All-in-all, at this early stage, DeSantis looks very much to have the inside track.