Extremist Dems fare well in Virginia primary
Republicans to the right of Glenn Youngkin fare poorly
Virginia held its primary elections last week. On the Republican side, it was a good night for Glenn Youngkin. All ten of the candidates he endorsed prevailed — in some cases at the expense of hardcore MAGA candidates.
On the Democratic side, it was a good night for leftists and a bad night for those who refused to take an extremist position on abortion.
It was also a bad night for law and order in Fairfax County. Soros-backed, soft-on-crime prosecutor Steve Descano won his primary by more than 10 percentage points, notwithstanding the Washington Post’s endorsement of his opponent, the County’s rising crime rate, and the fact that Descano is an awful person running a dysfunctional office.
Let’s start with a more detailed look at the Dem results. The Washington Post reports:
The Democratic shift was most apparent in Northern Virginia, where at least two veteran incumbent senators lost to younger challengers from the left: Chap Petersen (D-Fairfax City) was defeated by Saddam Salim and George L. Barker (D-Fairfax) lost to Stella Pekarsky. . . .
Petersen is an independent-minded Democrat who last year handed Youngkin his first — and arguably most significant — legislative win, ending the mask mandate in public schools. Barker is co-chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and he has been working with Republican House leaders toward some form of compromise on state budget priorities.
The success of far-left Democrats wasn’t confined to Northern Virginia:
Sen. Lionel Spruill Sr. (D-Chesapeake) lost to the more left-leaning Sen. L. Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth), and Sen. Joseph D. Morrissey (D-Richmond) lost to former delegate Lashrecse Aird at least partly over the issue of abortion. Morrissey has signaled a willingness to consider Youngkin’s call for a 15-week abortion ban, making him a potential swing vote in the closely divided Senate.
Morrissey is an odious character, so no tears need be shed over his defeat. Nonetheless, it was part of the march towards the extinction of non-radical Democrats in areas the Dems control.
However, in areas where Democrats face tough general election races, the party remains willing to nominate less extreme candidates:
While Democrats chose more liberal candidates in deep-blue districts, they opted for more moderate figures in the competitive races that will determine partisan control of the chamber, veteran Richmond political analyst Bob Holsworth said.
“The progressives did very well, but in competitive races, the Democrats have had a pretty good eye for nominating the most winnable candidates,” he said.
Yes, they have — and not just in Virginia. The Democrats have mastered the art of nominating hardcore leftists in Blue states while nominating candidates who can pose as moderates in swing states and Red states like Montana and West Virginia. The moderates and faux moderates give them their majority, while the hardcore leftists tend to run the show.
This approach stands in marked contrast to the Trump-era GOP. It specializes in nominating off-putting MAGA candidates — e.g., Herschel Walker and Gen. Don Bolduc — in precisely the states that are most competitive. That’s why Democrats control the U.S. Senate.
This week, however, Virginia Republicans preferred the conservatives Glenn Youngkin backed to their off-putting, anti-establishment opponents:
Youngkin endorsed 10 Republican primary candidates and all 10 scored victories — seven on Tuesday and three in earlier, party-run contests. In almost every case, the winners were more stylistically moderate than the challengers — though in substance, the policy difference might not be so great.
The lone Republican incumbent who lost a House seat, for instance, was Del. Marie March (Floyd), who often criticized her party’s leadership for not being conservative enough. But the victor in that nominating contest was Del. Wren Williams (Patrick), who served as a lawyer for Trump in demanding a vote recount in Wisconsin. He is at least as conservative as March, but he has a friendlier relationship with Youngkin.
“What the governor selected were conservatives who can work with him, as opposed to conservatives who would not,” Farnsworth said. “It’s not as if he selected Larry Hogan-style Republicans,” he added.
In addition to Marie March, Republican voters rejected Amanda Chase and Matt Strickland. Chase, an incumbent state senator, is a hardcore Trump supporter. She attended Trump’s January 6 rally and recorded a video the night before with Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes, who has since been found guilty of seditious conspiracy. As a state senator, she quit the GOP caucus amid disputes with leadership.
Strickland is an anti-lockdown crusader who attacked Youngkin as “an American in name only” because he thought the governor didn’t do enough to help him get back his liquor license. Strickland lost that license under the previous administration for non-compliance with Covid regulations.
Strickland’s successful opponent, Tara Durant, is no squish. She rose to prominence when she appeared in a fiery segment on Tucker Carlson’s show to recount a harrowing incident in which BLM protesters surrounded her car and she called in vain for police help. Durant was then elected to Virginia’s House and now, with Youngkin’s endorsement, seeks a seat in the Virginia Senate.
When the GOP primary season began, the field featured six candidates who attended Trump’s “Stop the Steal” rally on January 6, 2021. As noted, one of them, the now-defeated Chase, recorded a video the night before with Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes.
After this week’s primary, only two such candidates will be on the ballot in November. This should make it difficult for the Democrats to paint the Virginia GOP as “insurrectionist.”
By contrast, with so many left-wingers on the ballot, Youngkin and company may be able to paint the Democrats as extremists. Indeed, they are already trying. The day after the primary, Dave Rexrode, who chairs Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, wrote:
The radical progressive left is now in complete control of the Democratic Caucus in Virginia. Gone are the reasonable Democrats who would put Virginia first.
Come November, the stakes for Youngkin will be high. If his party flips the state Senate and holds onto its majority in the House, it will be a remarkable accomplishment in a state that had been strongly trending Blue until Youngkin came along. Youngkin’s star will continue to ascend with favorable implications for a presidential bid in 2028, unless a Republican other than Trump wins next year. (A Youngkin bid in 2024 seems unlikely.)
If the Democrats hold onto the Virginia Senate and retake the House, the results shouldn’t be fatal to Youngkin’s long-term prospects. However, he won’t be able to accomplish much as governor, and his star will dim.
With so much on the line, Youngkin must be pleased that his preferred candidates (and people he can work with) are on the ballot. However, there’s no guarantee that the GOP will prevail. A great deal of hard work lies ahead.