George Will's wishful thinking about Trump

I share the wish, but not the thought

Yogi Berra once said “it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” In fact, though, it’s often over long before it’s officially over.

I consider the contest for the Republican presidential nomination to be over. Absent his incapacitation, Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee.

I doubt many of our readers believe otherwise. But George Will seems to. He notes that in this weekend’s South Carolina primary, Trump’s share of the vote — 60 percent — was “less ‘gigantic’ than he had promised.”

True. When has it been otherwise with Trump? But trouncing a state’s popular former governor is impressive, nonetheless.

Consider: Trump is the first non-incumbent presidential candidate to win in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. He managed to win big in Iowa even though the state’s Republican establishment backed Ron DeSantis. He managed to win big in New Hampshire even though many non-Republicans voted. He managed to win big in South Carolina even though, as noted, his opponent was the state’s ex-governor.

Trump appears to have defeated Nikki Haley by a bigger margin than Joe Biden beat Elizabeth Warren by in Massachusetts in 2020 and Trump beat Marco Rubio by in Florida in 2016. Warren and Rubio quickly became non-factors after being humiliated in their home state, Haley is now a non-factor, too.

Will reminds us that in August 1951, the New York Giants trailed the Brooklyn Dodgers by 13.5 games, yet the Giants won the pennant. (Perhaps Yogi had this comeback in mind when he uttered his famous statement.) But baseball is not a popularity contest; a political race is.

Will’s apples-to-oranges comparison shows the extent to which he seems to have succumbed to wishful thinking. So does Will’s assumption that because Trump is a “blimp filled with. . .lighter-than-air gasses,” he is vulnerable to being punctured.

Trump has been that blimp for eight years. No Republican has punctured him. Throughout this period, Trump has engaged almost non-stop conduct that seemed self-destructive. But it has not caused his grip on GOP voters to loosen. It’s fanciful to suppose that next month will be different.

Only Joe Biden has punctured Trump, and Biden might do so again. But as far as I’m concerned, that comeuppance would come too late.

Not that I blame Will for thinking wishfully on this subject. I did the same thing in 2016. Back then, I cited overly optimistic projected delegate counts, outlier polls, and outlier primary or caucus results as evidence that Trump might not be the nominee. (Also, in late 2022 and early 2023, I was way too optimistic about DeSantis’ prospects.)

All I achieved in 2016 was to make myself look foolish in my own eyes and, doubtless, in the eyes of many readers. Such is the power of wishful thinking.

Unfortunately, this year I can’t even find outlier polls and primary/caucus results to support the fantasy that Trump will fall short at the Convention.

Will also contends that even if Trump is inevitable, Nikki Haley needs to hang on through Super Tuesday, so that Republican voters in more than just four states can weigh in. “Super Tuesday demands to be heard,” says the title of Wil’s piece.

I’m not hearing any such demand. But if Haley wants to give voters one last chance to reject Trump, that’s fine with me.

I would note however, that this year Joe Biden has faced only token opposition. Thus, Democratic voters did not get the opportunity to weigh in meaningfully on him in even one state. Republican voters have given a resounding thumbs up to Trump in four states — each in a different region of America and each with different voting rules and procedures.

Let’s face it. Republican voters still want Trump to lead the party and the nation. If he defeats Joe Biden, this will continue to be the case for at least four more years (barring his incapacitation). .

And, sadly, even If he loses in November, it’s possible that Trump, claiming that another election was stolen from him, will remain the party’s favorite. Such is his hold on the feverish imagination of the GOP base.

If I am wrong about any of this, I’ll be delighted to have played the fool, once again.