How Joe Biden paved the way for Chinese inroads into Saudi Arabia
The Obama administration famously “pivoted” its foreign policy focus from the Middle East to Asia. I say “famously” because the description became famous, not because there was any discernible improvement in the U.S. position in Asia as a result of the pivot.
The description deserves to be famous, but not a good way. Great powers, if they are serious, don’t pivot from one important geo-political region to another. They are always fully engaged in both.
Consider China. It’s full engaged in regions throughout the world, including our region — by which I mean our country. And it will always fill any significant void that a U.S. pivot creates.
However, China will pivot from one country within a region to another, and that’s what it is doing now. In the Middle East, it is pivoting to Saudi Arabia and away from Iran.
Why? The easy answer is because Saudi Arabia is very important to China. But that’s long been the case. The real answer is that Joe Biden’s missteps have created an opportunity for China to make major inroads with the Saudis.
Of China’s pivot to Saudi Arabia, there can be little doubt. President Xi recently visited Saudi Arabia. His joint statement with the Saudis declared Iran a supporter of regional terrorist groups and a proliferator of ballistic missiles and drones. It also noted the importance of addressing "the Iranian nuclear file and destabilizing regional activities."
In addition, the joint statement raised the issue of three islands located in the Strait of Hormuz — Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa. They are administered by Iran but claimed by the United Arab Emirates. The statement said: "The leaders affirmed their support for all peaceful efforts, including the initiative and endeavors of the United Arab Emirates, to reach a peaceful solution."
Iran countered that the three islands are "inseparable parts of the pure land of Iran and belong to this motherland forever.” It also called called in China's ambassador to discuss the controversial joint statement.
Like the pivot itself, there’s little doubt about its proximate cause. As this report from NikkeiAsia puts it:
[Xi’s visit] comes amid a widening rift between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia over human rights issues and Riyadh's refusal to comply with U.S. President Joe Biden's request to keep oil prices low.
Beijing sees a golden opportunity to establish a foothold in the Middle East and to counter Washington's efforts to shift assets to the Indo-Pacific region.
For the U.S. to create an opening for China in Saudi Arabia over human rights concerns is worse than foreign policy malpractice. It borders on the criminal.
If all things were equal, it would make sense to do what we can, realistically, to improve the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia. But all things are rarely equal in foreign affairs, and they certainly aren’t equal when we’re talking about a vital strategic partner like the Saudis and an imposing worldwide adversary like the Chinese.
Biden got a dose of geo-political reality this Fall when when he sought Saudi help help to reduce global energy prices, ease domestic price pressures, and deny Russia energy revenue. The Saudis rebuffed him.
This was just a taste of the harm that can result from deteriorating U.S. relations with the Saudis. As this article explains:
Another emerging wedge between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. relates to the global shift in Saudi trade and investment relations. Closer commercial ties with countries in Asia, and especially China—which is already the largest single market for Saudi oil exports and buys more 25% of the kingdom’s total goods exports—will draw political attention and prompt new policy initiatives most likely at the expense of relations with the West
Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia considered changing the pricing of oil sales to China from US dollars to Chinese renminbi (also known as yuan). To date the kingdom’s rulers have resisted the currency switch for oil trade, but the temptation will grow along with China’s expected rise as a global economic powerhouse.
Such a move would threaten the long-standing petrodollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the US that requires the Saudi state to sell its oil only for US dollars and to reinvest excess dollar reserves in US treasury securities and US companies, all in return for US security guarantees. In addition, this would probably contribute to a decoupling of the Saudi riyal from the US dollar, to which it has been pegged at SR3.75:US$1 since 1986.
The Wall Street Journal points out that if priced in yuan, Saudi oil sales would boost the standing of China’s currency. Indeed, “it would be a profound shift for Saudi Arabia to price even some of its roughly 6.2 million barrels of day of crude exports in anything other than dollars.”
Saudi Arabia thus represents a key player as China seeks to rearrange the geo-political chess board.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden seems to be playing checkers. Apparently, he’s still fixated on the murder of a Saudi dissident and occasional Washington Post op-ed writer. (In his campaign for the presidency, Biden vowed to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” because of this.) It’s understandable that the Post retains this fixation, but absurd that it influences U.S. foreign policy towards the Saudis — and, by extension, China.
But then, Team Biden may be playing chess, too. Given the Democrats’ long history of “blame American first” foreign policy and distaste for U.S. power, Biden’s team may want a rearrangement of the geo-political chess board in which America has reduced power and influence.
If this assessment is unfair to Biden, it seems at least to fit Senate Democrats. Taking their cues from Independent (i.e. socialist) Bernie Sanders, they hoped to block U.S. support for the war effort in Yemen where the Saudis are fighting against the Iranian-backed Houthis.
And just to remove any doubt as to their desire to handcuff America, the resolution extended beyond Yemen to limit U.S. intelligence-sharing wherever there are “hostilities.” A Democratic aide acknowledged that Sanders’ resolution “could have real ramifications for our support for Ukraine right now, or our support for Israel,”
The Senate passed a resolution blocking support for the Yemen war in 2018 and 2019, but lacked the votes to override President Trump’s veto. They were poised to pass the latest, more restrictive incarnation this month. Fortunately, Biden persuaded Senate Dems not to do so. Unfortunately, he did so by touting a cease-fire and truce talks, thereby signaling that we may not support the Saudis in case of renewed fighting.
The Saudis surely have noticed the Senate Democrats’ distaste, and Biden’s queasiness, about supporting them in Yemen. This can only redound to China’s benefit as it pivots towards Saudi Arabia.
Like it or not, China is working assiduously around the globe to weaken America’s position. Their goal is the same as the Soviet Union’s was — to bury America, figuratively.
To counter China, the U.S. must adopt essentially the same approach we used to counter the Soviets. This means being engaged globally. It also means maintaining strong relations with strategic partners even when we’re unhappy with their record on human rights.
Even if it made sense to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah,” as Biden foolishly promised to do, the U.S. lacks the power to accomplish this. The world is not unipolar. It’s a form of narcissism to believe otherwise.
China has a say too. It can embrace the Saudis and gain their favor.
Thanks to Joe Biden, this is happening. To the detriment of America.