Iowa isn't an ideal state for Trump, but he's far ahead there
If there’s any state in which Donald Trump’s bid for the GOP nomination should stall, it’s Iowa. Iowans have a reputation for being nice. Trump is the opposite of nice.
Iowa caucus goers love to have candidates pay a vast amount of attention to their state. While Ron DeSantis and Trump’s other rivals relentlessly roam Iowa, Trump shows up intermittently.
Evangelicals make up a goodly portion of Iowa Republicans. Trump is notorious immoral and reportedly has alienated prominent Iowa evangelical leaders like Bob Vander Plaats.
Iowa Republicans really like their governor, Kim Reynolds. Trump is feuding with her.
Trump nearly ran the table in primaries and caucuses in 2016. However, he lost the Iowa caucuses to Ted Cruz, at least in part for some of the reasons cited above.
Yet, in 2024 the polls show Trump to be well ahead of his Republican rivals in Iowa. A recent New York Times/Sienna poll put Trump up by 24 points over second-place Ron DeSantis. In the Real Clear Politics average, Trump leads DeSantis by 27 points.
It’s true that these leads are much smaller than Trump’s national lead over DeSantis, again, probably for some of the reasons noted earlier. But a 24-27 point lead is still massive.
Trump’s appearance at the Iowa state fair this weekend illustrates both the former president’s unique approach to Iowa and the problem his rivals face in that state. DeSantis and others in the trailing pack put in long hours at the fair, pressing the flesh and doing a Q and A with Gov. Reynolds.
Trump arrived at the event around midday and was gone before 2:00 p.m. He declined to participate in Reynolds’ sessions.
Oh, and he attracted the biggest crowd and was cheered like a rock star.
I’ve seen lots of explanations for why Trump remains so popular among Republicans even after losing the 2020 race, probably costing the GOP a Senate majority twice, sparking violence at the Capitol building in January 2021, and getting himself indicted, justifiably, for obstruction of justice and mishandling classified information.
Maybe the simplest explanation is the best one. By a large majority, Republicans think Trump was a good president. In addition, many, if not most, believe he can win the presidency in 2024 because he defied the naysayers in 2016 and/or because the polls say he has a decent shot at beating Joe Biden (and a better shot than DeSantis has).
Even so, I’m not saying that DeSantis can’t pull an upset in Iowa. I think he can, although I wouldn’t bet on it.
But Trump can afford to lose Iowa, as he did in 2016. Back then, his popularity with Republican voters nationally amounted to a firewall that protected him after his Iowa defeat. That same popularity might serve the same purpose this time, if necessary.
I’m not sure DeSantis can afford to lose Iowa, and I’m pretty sure he can’t afford to be blown out. Given low expectations, the rest of Trump’s rivals can afford to lose Iowa, but they probably can’t survive a poor showing there, either.
It’s true, of course, that a lot can happen between now and the Iowa caucuses. But a lot has happened since 2016 and none of it — no matter how bad — caused Trump to lose his hold on the GOP rank-and-file.
The criminal cases are something new. However, it’s unlikely that Trump will be tried before the Iowa caucuses in any of these cases; nor is it clear that a conviction in any of them would cause Trump’s supporters to abandon him.
The one change that might break Trump’s stranglehold on the party would be polls suggesting that Biden easily beats Trump but not DeSantis. However, I doubt we’ll see such polls. If Biden pulls ahead of Trump, he’s likely to be ahead of DeSantis, too, because the Florida governor, in his aggressive efforts to win over Trump’s base, is unlikely to be viewed by independents as a more palatable version of the former president.
The betting odds give Trump about a two-in-three chance of winning the nomination. I think his chance is at least that good.