Is the "deep state" behind revelations of document mishandling by Biden?
Some on the right are saying that revelations about Joe Biden’s improper handling of classified information are the result of the “deep state” turning on the president. Josh Hammer presents that theory here. He thinks this is the soundest explanation for why we’re now learning about what Biden did with the documents.
Charlie Kirk is more definitive. He tweets:
The drip drip drip of information coming out against Biden is the first tell. The lack of messaging discipline among Democrats is the other. It’s clear that a powerful faction is moving against Biden loyalists to replace him ahead of 2024.
Jack Posobiec tweets that “2 months before he died, Rush Limbaugh predicted the regime would turn on Biden and described exactly what we are seeing right now.” Actually, that’s not exactly what Limbaugh predicted. I’ll get to this in a minute.
Is there anything to the Hammer-Kirk view of what the Biden documents scandal signifies? Possibly, but I doubt it.
Someone inside the government alerted the media to this scandal. But I don’t see why we should assume it was a “deep state” player or a member of some powerful faction.
It could have been an employee who dislikes Biden for any number of reasons including, possibly, Biden’s ties to the “deep state.” It could have been an employee with no partisan ax to grind who simply disapproved of Biden’s handling of documents and/or his hypocrisy in ripping Trump for his document handling. It could have been pro-Biden forces that realized the information was bound to come out eventually and wanted it to come out as far removed from November 2024 as possible.
As for the “lack of messaging discipline,” that’s probably a function of the absence of a good message. And keep in mind that Democrat messaging wasn’t stellar on Afghanistan or (initially) inflation.
To be sure, the leak could have come from one or more members of a powerful faction that wants a different Democratic nominee in 2024 because, with the midterms over, Biden has outlived his usefulness as an effective standard bearer for Democrats . But there are at least three problems with this theory.
First, Biden’s approval rating is improving. Inflation is diminishing. The unemployment numbers remain good. And Biden has done nothing I’m aware of that’s against the interests of the “deep state.”
Why, then, would deep state members or the DNC (Hammer suggests that “deep state spooks” were acting on orders from the DNC) want to injure Biden now? Why not hold off until they have a better sense of Biden’s 2024 prospects?
And whom does the deep state/DNC have in mind as the beneficiary of sinking Biden? Kamala Harris? Not likely. Pete Buttigieg? Not likely.
Hammer thinks the deep state has Gavin Newsom in mind. Kirk concurs in response to comments on his tweet.
But why? He’s an unknown quantity when it comes to some of the national issues near and dear to the national security bureaucracy and certain other precincts of the deep state. Biden seems like a far better instrument. So even if the DNC called on “deep state spooks” to dish dirt on Biden, it’s doubtful they would have complied.
But second, are the document-handling revelations likely to sink Biden? Probably not, unless there’s more to the story than what’s been reported so far. The most likely outcome is something like what happened with Hillary Clinton, minus the late drama which is what injured her. In other words, the special counsel finds that Biden acted negligently and improperly but that this doesn’t rise to a level that warrants criminal prosecution.
If the economy is in reasonably good shape in 2024, then absent a national security crisis or another debacle like Afghanistan, these findings probably won’t damage a Biden candidacy.
And here’s where Rush Limbaugh’s prediction comes in — the one Posobiec referred to in his tweet. Limbaugh predicted that at some point Barack Obama would turn on Biden and the result would be revelations about Biden abusing his office to enrich his himself and his family.
The revelations about documents aren’t that, and they are far less likely to sink Biden. If the deep state and DNC had really turned on Biden, I’d expect to see new reports like the ones Limbaugh predicted.
Third, who is the obvious beneficiary of reports about Biden’s document handling? It isn’t Gavin Newsom.
It’s Donald Trump. As a political matter, he’s likely off the hook for his mishandling of documents. As a legal matter, he’s very likely to avoid prosecution.
Does the deep state and DNC want Trump to receive these passes? I don’t think so.
I can’t rule out the possibility that some within the deep state and/or DNC want Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024, on the theory that he’ll be easy to defeat. But given how much they hate Trump, and how much they fear him, this possibility seems remote. It’s far more likely that they want to bury Trump, rather than to help him.
And unless they want to help Trump, it’s difficult to credit the view that they took actions that almost surely will have this as their primary effect.
As you suggest, there could be something more conspiratorial behind this than is currently known. However, applying Occam's razor it is likely more prosaic, like the "brain trust" behind Biden figured it was going to come out eventually, and this was the time to get it out and take the hits. It's post mid-terms and 2024 is still a ways away.
The idea that a non-deeo state actor reported it is not relevant because the question here isn't who reported it but why action is being taken against Biden by the government? Biden was protected from the Hunter laptop story because the deep state wanted him protected. The deep state is not protecting him from this story because they don't want him protected. That's obvious. What's not so obvious is the why. But you don't have to speculate to hard. The deep state is afraid of DeSantis and they think Newsom is the best answer. They never wanted Biden to begin with. He was their last hope when all the other Dem candidates blew up. He's expendable now in their view.