Larry Hogan's "respect" for Trump verdict hurts GOP's Senate chances.

So does Trumpworld's response.

Republican prospects for regaining control of the Senate may hinge on Larry Hogan’s ability to win in dark blue Maryland. The popular ex-governor, a moderate Republican, has been doing well in early polling.

This week, though, Hogan set himself back with this comment about the Trump case, made before the verdict was in: “Regardless of the result, I urge all Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process.”

I disagree with Hogan. I do not respect the verdict of a Manhattan jury in a case against Donald Trump who is widely hated in that borough. I do not respect a legal process in a case brought by a DA who ran on a campaign promise to prosecute Trump and presided over by a judge who contributed money to defeat Trump and showed bias against the defendant throughout the proceeding. I do not respect the case brought against Trump, which stretched the law to its limits, and probably beyond, for transparently partisan purposes.

But even if one agrees with Hogan, his statement looks like a blunder.

To win this Fall, Hogan needs two blocks of voters: the Democrats and Independents who helped him to victory twice when he ran for governor in an overwhelmingly Democratic state and the conservative Republicans, including the strong pro-Trumpers, who also supported him.

The former group will like his statement about the verdict. Whether it will help win their votes when control of the Senate is at stake remains to be seen. On the other hand, we know that many Republicans — the hardcore Trump supporters — hate Hogan’s statement and that some of them are likely not to vote for him because of it.

It would have been better politically for Hogan to stay away from “respecting” the verdict against Trump. It would have been better to avoid commenting until the verdict came in and then to say ‘we’ll comment after the appeal process is completed’ (which almost certainly will be after the election.) Trump’s backers wouldn’t have been thrilled, but they wouldn’t have been too upset.

As it turned out, and as night follows day, the tough guys in Trumpworld immediately lashed out at Hogan. Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, informed Hogan, via X, “You just ended your campaign.” He later added:

If [Hogan] is going to make his point, we’re going to make our point. You take a shot, you’re going to get a shot back. That’s how it works in politics.

Actually, that’s how it works in losing politics. In winning politics, slights are overlooked, thanks to strategic thinking.

Democrats understand this. That’s why they give their candidates the room they need to win in tough states like Montana.

Even Joe Biden understands how it works if you want to win. He took a low blow from Kamala Harris during the first presidential debate, but went on to make her his running mate in order to shore up support among leftists and blacks. (In doing so he reportedly ignored the advice of his wife, which was driven by emotion.)

LaCivita wasn’t the only Republican to demonstrate his toughness and fealty to Trump by piling on Hogan. Dan Cox called on the Maryland state GOP to censure Hogan for his “despicable and disgusting announcement.”

Cox is an expert on losing Maryland elections. In the 2022 race for governor, he pulled in only 32 percent of the vote. In Hogan’s two successful races, he won 51 percent and then 55 percent of it.

Cox has the right to be envious, but he shouldn’t be stupid. It would be madness for the state party to censure Hogan, given the importance of the Maryland race to control of the Senate.

If Trump wins the presidency, he will need a Republican-controlled Senate. Without it, he won’t be able to confirm judges or even cabinet members. Hogan won’t vote to confirm all of them, but his left-wing opponent won’t vote to confirm any who are remotely controversial.

Nor, without a Senate majority, will Trump be able to enact his pet measures — at least the conservative ones — even through reconciliation. And if Democrats are in the majority, they can attack the Trump administration through endless Senate hearings.

Therefore, a modicum of strategic thinking counsels in favor of not blasting Larry Hogan. Sure, some hardcore Trump supporters would defect from Hogan anyway as a result of his ill-advised statement. But many — most I say — would overlook the statement if the Trump campaign did.

But Team Trump doesn’t think strategically. Almost everything is personal to the boss and therefore personal to those who surround him and seek his favor.

This approach has contributed to three straight bad election years for the GOP — 2018, 2020, and 2022. It has also helped fuel some of the criminal indictments of Trump.

It may cost Republicans control of the Senate in this year’s election.

But Trump will be Trump. And for now, the Republican party is Trump’s world. Republicans are just living in it. . . or trying to.