Macron does the math, recognizes a Palestinian state

French President Macron has announced that France will recognize an independent state of Palestine in September at the U.N. General Assembly. France thus becomes the largest Western power to make this move.

Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the U.S. do not recognize a Palestinian state. Neither does Japan. But then, none of these nations has a Muslim population as large as France’s.

Macron explained his decision in a letter to Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority:

In his letter to Abbas, Macron noted that the Palestinian leader had condemned the attack by Hamas, a rival to his own Fatah party, and called for the return of the Israeli hostages; supported the disarmament of Hamas and its removal from government; and pledged to reform the Palestinian Authority and organize presidential and legislative elections for next year.

Of course, Abbas wants Hamas disarmed and removed from government. It is the PA’s rival for leadership in the quest to destroy Israel. As for reforming the PA, Abbas has been that outfit’s leader for 20 years — long enough to have reformed it were he serious about doing so.

As for elections, there’s no reason to believe the result will render the PA less bent on destroying Israel. If anything, elections are likely to produce a leader more capable of waging war against Israel than the 89 year-old Abbas. And let’s not forget that Hamas came to power in Gaza via elections.

Macron coupled his announcement about recognizing a Palestinian state with a post on X stating that “the urgent priority today is to end the war in Gaza and to bring relief to the civilian population.” Apparently, Macron does not regard defeating Hamas as an urgent priority. Israel can be forgiven for disagreeing with him.

I should also note that the Palestinian state France will recognize presumably encompasses the West Bank and Gaza. Hamas is still in power in Gaza. Thus, Macron is recognizing a state, part of which is run by the most bloodthirsty terrorists imaginable.

Naturally, Hamas called Macron's decision a "positive step in the right direction." It urged all countries of the world "to follow France's lead,"

Prime Minister Netanyahu had the best response I’ve seen to Macron’s announcement. He wrote:

We strongly condemn President Macron’s decision to recognize a Palestinian state next to Tel Aviv in the wake of the October 7 massacre. Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became. A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel — not to live in peace beside it. Let’s be clear: the Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel; they seek a state instead of Israel.

It’s tempting to say that Macron’s recognition of a Palestinian state eliminates France as an honest broker of a Gaza settlement and of future Middle East agreements. In reality, though, France was never an honest broker.

Indeed, there’s some truth in Donald Trump’s reaction to Macron’s decision. Trump said, “Here's the good news. What [Macron] says doesn't matter.”

Trump is right in the sense that what Macron says doesn’t matter on the ground in the Middle East right now. Nonetheless, it’s disturbing, and perhaps a sign of things to come, for a leading Western state break ranks on the illegitimacy of the PA and the seriousness of the threat it poses to Israel.

I found it interesting that Macron’s main rival for power in France, Marine Le Pen, denounced his decision. Making the point I raised above, she stated: “to recognize a Palestinian state today is to recognize a Hamas state, and therefore a terrorist state.”

Marine Le Pen is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen and her party is the heir of the one he founded. Jean-Marie Le Pen and his party were anti-Semitic through and through.

But now the party he founded, universally described by the mainstream media as “right-wing,” is France’s pro-Israel party. Macron’s centrist party is pro those whose mission is to destroy Israel.

Macron may not hate Israel, and I’m pretty sure he doesn’t want to see it destroyed. What Macron wants above all is to stay in power — something he has somehow managed to do despite having been resoundingly rejected by French voters.

It’s his quest for power that explains Macron’s posture towards Israel and the PA. Muslim’s make up around 10 percent of France’s population (and growing). Jews make up less than 1 percent (and shrinking as anti-Semitism rises in France).

Macron has done the math.

Michael Oren, scholar and former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., was exaggerating, I hope, when he wrote:

Macron’s decision to recognize a Palestinian state is the first step toward creating a jihadist state in France. A secret French government report recently concluded that the Muslim Brotherhood has already created a state-within-a-state within France. Hamas is a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. By recognizing a Palestinian state, Macron strengthens Hamas and undermines the French state. Macron is the modern Pétain for the new Vichy.

It has long been reported that parts of France, certain suburbs of Paris for example, are essentially controlled by Muslims. Police enter these “sensitive” zones at their peril, often equipped with body armor. Thus, Oren may not be exaggerating by much.

I’ll conclude with this post from David Friedman, the U.S. ambassador to Israel during the first Trump administration:

One day, not long from now, historians will ask why Hamas dug in for so long, inflicting unspeakable pain even upon its own people. The consensus will emerge from the historical evidence that it was because of the encouragement and misplaced sympathy Hamas received from the West: on the streets, in academia, in media, and in the halls of government in places like Canada, Western Europe and Australia, and from those who wrongly placed the blame for every civilian casualty on Israel. They are the ones with blood on their hands who prolonged the captivity of the hostages and the suffering of those in Gaza.

This, I think, is no exaggeration.