Nancy Pelosi should visit Taiwan

The planned visit has broad bipartisan support, but scares Biden

Given Nancy Pelosi’s track record, the strong presumption should be against any foreign travel by the Speaker. Indeed, her infamous trip to the Middle East during the Bush 43 administration, during which she cozied up to Syrian tyrant Bashar al-Assad and declared him the key to peace and stability in the region, arguably should be disqualifying.

However, I’m in favor of Pelosi following through with her planned trip to Taiwan. So, by the way, are Republican leaders, including key members of the Trump national security team.

U.S. military power is all that stands between the Taiwanese and an invasion by China. But our might cannot deter China unless Beijing believes the U.S. has the will to back Taiwan. And for China to be convinced of this, it needs to understand that the will exists on both sides of the aisle.

That’s why a visit by the Democratic Speaker of the House is worthwhile. It’s also why China so strongly opposes the visit. That, and the related desire to test the will of the Biden administration.

China has threatened “serious consequences” if Pelosi visits Taiwan. Its increasingly hostile pronouncements have caused the Taiwanese to conduct air raid exercises. These pronouncements have also raised the fear that China will establish a no-fly zone over Taiwan.

The notion that a foreign country can tell American leaders, or indeed any American, where they may and may not travel is plainly unacceptable. If Chinese threats cause Pelosi not to visit Taiwan, we might as well announce that, as far as the U.S. is concerned, China can take Taiwan by force — we won’t do anything to stop this. And while we’re at it, we should announce that China is now the world’s preeminent power.

Official U.S. policy on Taiwan is called “strategic ambiguity.” The idea, as I understand it, is to remind China of the risk of a U.S. military response to an attack on Taiwan without making outright threats. Or something.

But if the U.S. backs down on a matter as non-threatening as a visit to Taiwan by the House Speaker, there will be no more ambiguity about our strategy. China will have strategic clarity — the knowledge that we lack the will to back our ally.

Whatever one thinks of “strategic ambiguity,” it’s better than unambiguous kowtowing.

Thus, the argument in favor of Pelosi visiting Taiwan seems compelling. But there’s a hitch. Joe Biden is president. Can we afford a showdown with China during Biden’s presidency?

Having threatened “serious consequences,” China is almost sure to follow through if Pelosi visits Taiwan. I doubt we’d be heading for a shooting war. If there’s a war with China, it will be at the time of Beijing’s choosing. And because China’s military capability keeps improving relative to America’s, the time of Beijing’s choosing will likely be down the road, not just now.

Unless China already planned to invade Taiwan imminently and just wants to use Pelosi’s visit as a pretext, the visit is unlikely to lead to a serious military engagement with the U.S.

But China has other ways to inflict damage on the U.S. If Pelosi visits Taiwan, it’s hard to imagine China abstaining from doing so now that it has issued its warnings.

I would have a fair amount of trust in Donald Trump to face down China in the event of escalating military or economic tensions. Indeed, I doubt China would be trying to dictate who visits Taiwan if Trump were still president.

But do I trust Joe Biden to navigate us competently through a major crisis with China? No.

I doubt Biden even trusts himself. It’s not encouraging that Biden signaled his opposition to the visit by saying that the U.S. military thinks it’s a bad idea. He and Jill probably see this matter as another “problem of the moment,” to be sidestepped in the name of “the many hopes and plans for things they want to do.”

But China’s attempt to dictate to Pelosi and Biden is a challenge that can’t be sidestepped. Nor would knuckling under to China’s demand truly sidestep anything.

It wouldn’t avoid a crisis. It would just make China the victor of the crisis it created.

To paraphrase Don Rumsfeld, you to through a crisis with the president you have. Joe Biden is the president we have. Let’s hope the advisers and security apparatus he has are up to this latest challenge.