Netanyahu accepts a seriously flawed plan to end the war in Gaza
And, of course, gets no credit from the mainstream media for doing so.
Lopsided wars usually end when the side being crushed surrenders. Terms of the surrender might be generous or harsh. Often they involved the winning side occupying the territory formerly held by the losing one for a good while. For example, the victorious allies occupied Germany after World War II for almost ten years and the U.S. occupied Japan for about seven.
Yesterday, Israel offered Hamas, loser of the lopsided Gaza war, extremely generous terms of surrender. It did so, I assume, under pressure from President Trump.
The terms are so generous that Arab and non-Arab Muslim nations highly sympathetic to Palestinians endorsed it. Even on CNN, the analysts I heard — Brett McGurk and Trump-hating Max Boot — acknowledged the generosity of the offer.
How could they not? Under the plan, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and who decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries.
In addition, Israel will free 250 life-sentence prisoners (some of the worst terrorists) plus 1,700 Gazans who were detained after October 7, 2023. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans. Talk about lopsided.
Furthermore, Gaza will immediately receive a massive amount of economic aid. On top of that, an economic development plan to rebuild and energize Gaza will be created by a panel of experts who have helped create thriving modern cities in the Middle East. And no one will be forced to leave Gaza. Those who wish to leave will be free to do so — and free to return.
Perhaps most importantly — and most unfortunately in my view — Israeli forces will leave Gaza. The IDF will progressively hand over all of the Gaza territory it occupies to something called the International Stabilization Force (ISF). Only a security perimeter presence will remain and only until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat.
The ISF will be established by the U.S. in conjunction with Arab partners. It will train and provide support to “vetted Palestinian police forces” in Gaza, and will consult with Jordan and Egypt.
Some of these terms surely were very hard for Benjamin Netanyahu to swallow. It’s not just that some are anathema to Netanyahu’s coalition partners. The Prime Minister himself must have balked at them — and for good reason, as I argue below.
Is it safe to assume, therefore, that the mainstream media lauded Netanyahu for signing on to such a generous peace plan? You know the answer. The MSM did not. (Nor, of course, did Trump receive much credit for pushing the plan through.)
According to a chorus of voices on CNN, Netanyahu only agreed to the plan because he knows Hamas will not accept it. But no one knows whether Hamas will accept the plan. And even if Hamas is unlikely to accept it, how does the CNN Netanyahu-hating chorus know that this is the only reason Israel accepted the deal?
Maybe Netanyahu accepted it because of pressure from Trump. Maybe because of internal pressure from a population weary of war and anxious to bring hostages and remains of hostages back to Israel. Maybe Netanyahu listened to the military, which seems skeptical at best about more assaults in Gaza.
In the end, it doesn’t matter why Netanyahu agreed. The fact is that he agreed. For that, he should be praised by those who like the deal.
I’m not one of them. Generosity in victory is a fine thing as long as it doesn’t lay pave the way for future warfare.
Does the plan Trump pushed and Netanyahu agreed to bode poorly for the future? It very well might.
First, Hamas isn’t being expelled from Gaza. Apparently, all its members (the ones that can be identified) need to do to stay on is say they support peaceful co-existence with Israel and surrender their weapons.
But the word of a Hamas terrorist is worthless on any issue, much less on Israel’s right to exist. And it’s unlikely that Hamas fighters will have much difficulty obtaining new weapons.
Will the ISF be able to keep Hamas from reemerging? It’s hard to say without knowing more details.
It seems clear, however, that the real boots on the ground will be “vetted Palestinian police forces.” I have little faith in their ability and their desire to suppress emerging terrorists, and little confidence in the ability of the U.S. or its Arab partners to “vet” them.
To me, this means the IDF needs to remain in Gaza. But the deal contemplates IDF withdrawal.
What conditions must be met before the IDF hands over territory to the ISF? It’s not clear. But I imagine Israel will be under great pressure to have the IDF pull back regardless of whether the ISF proves its mettle. The pressure will be especially intense if Trump is succeeded by a Democrat or by a Republican less sympathetic to Israel.
Trump’s plan also contains language about aspirations for a Palestinian state. There’s nothing concrete or binding in that language. I assume it was included to get sign-off from Arab and Muslim states.
I wish it hadn’t been. The language will be used down the road to pressure Israel to accept a Palestinian state, especially in a Democratic administration.
The upshot is that if Netanyahu does hope that Hamas rejects the deal, he has good reason to.
I think everyone expects Hamas to agree then break the deal - but by that point the hostages will be home and Israel can proceed to do to Hamas what has long needed doing. I don't think anyone on Earth believes Hamas will ever keep their word about anything except trying to murder Jews.
I expect Hamas to reject the deal. That said this is as you say a negotiated surrender for Hamas. You left out one of the important things that Netanyahu insisted on which is that all the terror infrastructure of Hamas including the tunnels are to be destroyed entirely before any other rebuilding is done. Furthermore he arranged that the IDF will only withdraw in stages pending succesful implementations of the reforms. As this is not likely to happen the IDF is not likely to withdraw despite whatever pressure comes. After all there will be no more hostages. Also Israel has not agreed to give permanent amnesty to Hamas killers. You can bet that any that are so foolish as to stay and who take up arms again whether against Israelis or against whatever government is put in place will forfeit their lives.
A few other positives. Whatever is rebuilt, will be rebuilt under American supervision. The tangled grotesque neughborhoods built with the help of UNWRA where Hamas has hidden will be no more. The rockets and missile launchers will be gone. The tunnels will be gone. I presume the IDF will not allow them to be rebuilt even if Hamas should try. For that matter there is no mention of UN involvement at all and that is almost certainly going to be insisted on by Israel and the U.S.
In short this is something of a reset to 2005 except instead of the world leaving Hamas and UNWRA to turn the strip into a murder machine, Israel will be aware enough not to allow that to happen again.
And the hostages are all to be freed in 72 hours. This is not an unconditional surrender obviously. Hamas will retain some hope of recovery. But it is a surrender. And I honestly don't think Israel will do better on its own through further war. So I hope Hamas says yes. But I don't expect it to.