Notes on the GOP presidential debate

There was good news and bad news at tonight’s Republican presidential debate. The good news is that several of the candidates made strong showings. I think Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley performed the best.

The bad news is two-fold. First, none of the candidates on stage is likely to be the Republican nominee.

Second, Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trump wannabe but worse than the former president on foreign policy, staked a claim to the post-Trump future of the GOP. For the first time, I worry that such a future might be as dismal as the present.

The bad news was evident before anyone spoke a word at the debate. Vivek took center stage by virtue of being in third place in the polls relied on by the Republican National Committee. Only Trump and DeSantis are ahead of him.

Things got worse from almost the moment Vivek opened his mouth. He accused all seven of his debate opponents of being bought and sold by PACs. By contrast, Vivek pronounced himself a true patriot.

All seven of the accused have served this country, most of them in multiple and important capacities. As far as I know, Vivek has never served anyone but himself. If he has, he didn’t mention it during the debate.

I’m tempted to say that Vivek’s outrageous attack on his opponents was straight from the Trump playbook. However, I can’t recall Trump ever accusing all of his opponents of being bought and sold. He’s more surgical than that.

On substance, Vivek saved his worse for the portion of the debate about Ukraine. He was the only participant who said flat out that he would not support any more military aid to that embattled ally. (DeSantis said he would make further support contingent on Europe doing more.)

My problem isn’t with Vivek’s position, although I disagree with it. My problem is with what passes for his reasoning.

He argued (1) that support for Ukraine is hurting our effort to secure the U.S.-Mexico border and (2) that we’re driving Russia into China’s arms.

Both arguments are superficial and naive. The ordnance we’re supplying Ukraine — such as tanks, rockets, and fighter jets — would be useless in securing our border. And China and Russia are natural allies who pledged mutual loyalty before Russia invaded Ukraine. (China seems a little more standoffish now that Russia has been stymied in Ukraine, thanks in part to our aid.)

In blaming our support of Ukraine for the Russia-China alliance, Vivek shows himself to be a “blame America firster.” And he has no case.

The only good thing about Vivek’s presence is that with his obnoxiousness and personal attacks, he drew almost all of the fire aimed at any of the candidates. (Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Haley were the main attackers.) This meant that DeSantis, the one candidate with an outside shot at defeating Trump, took virtually no hits.

But this minor benefit is outweighed by the likelihood that Vivek will gain support as a result of this debate and, as I said, has staked a claim to the post-Trump Republican future.

Speaking of DeSantis, he came out smoking and rarely let up. And many conservatives who are tired of moderators dictating the proceedings will have liked it when DeSantis, in response to a call for a show of hands, told the Fox moderators that “we’re not school children,” and refused to go along.

Actually a show of hands is a very useful tool in debates involving lots of candidates. And DeSantis’ objection was probably just a way to avoid taking an unequivocal position. But as debate theatre for a Republican audience, I suspect his ploy played well. Congrats to whoever coached him to use it.

Those who wanted DeSantis to attack Trump by name will be disappointed with tonight’s performance. The closest he came was when he praised himself, justifiably, for keeping Florida open during the pandemic and for disregarding Anthony Fauci. DeSantis thus invited viewers to compare his performance to Trump’s, but he didn’t mention the former president.

I understand why DeSantis stopped short. But I think that eventually he’ll have to draw the contrast explicitly, whether or not Trump ever appears on the debate stage with him.

As I said above, I thought Haley was the other standout performer tonight. She showed herself to be a powerhouse of a debater, and was probably the most effective of those who took on Vivek. I had no idea she was this good.

However, I’m not sure she did herself any favors with Iowa caucus-goers and base conservatives in general with her somewhat wishy-washy answers on abortion. In any case, Haley is probably a no-hoper when it comes to winning the nomination.

Her debate performance tonight tells me she’d be a good VP candidate. But the posture she took towards Trump — she backed Pence’s actions on January 6, 2021 and called Trump “the most disliked politician in America” — make it unlikely, I think, that Trump would select her.