Poll: Georgia Democrats in big trouble, except for Warnock

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has just released the results of its latest poll of Georgia’s statewide races. They are great for Governor Kemp, Secretary of State Raffensperger, and two of the other three GOP candidates.

For the third GOP candidate, Herschel Walker, the result is mildly encouraging at best.

Kemp leads Stacey Abrams by eight points, 50-42. In the race for Lieutenant Governor, GOP state Sen. Burt Jones leads his opponent by ten points, 43-33. Similarly, the GOP candidate for Attorney General, Chris Carr, is ten points ahead, 45-35.

The most stunning gap is in the Secretary of State race, where Raffensperger leads by 19 points, 50-31. This seems like a fitting reward for standing up to Donald Trump’s attempt to bully him into “finding votes.”

Herschel Walker is the only statewide GOP laggard. He leads Sen. Warnock by just two points, 46-44. That lead is within the margin of error (3.3 percent) in a poll of 861 likely voters.

The Walker-Warnock race is also within the margin of error in a new poll by Marist. However, that survey (of 992 likely voters) gives Warnock the nominal lead, 47-45. The Marist poll finds Kemp crushing Abrams, 53-42.

It seems clear that the Walker-Warnock race is deadlocked. If it remains this tight, we might well have a runoff, given the presence of a third candidate who is attracting some support.

However, Walker and Warnock are scheduled to debate on October 14. That event might break the deadlock. Warnock, a polished speaker, would seem to have the advantage, though one never knows about debates.

The polling of both the Journal-Constitution and Marist shows that traditional Republicanism is significantly more popular than the Trumpian brand in Georgia. But we already knew that from the primaries.

The simple truth is that the Georgia Senate race shouldn’t be close. The Journal-Constitution poll found that only 37 percent of likely voters approve of Joe Biden’s performance. 51 percent strongly disapprove of it, according to the Journal-Constitution. In the Senate, Warnock backs Biden up and down the line.

Warnock’s own approval rating is 47 percent. A rating of under 50 percent normally signals that an incumbent Senator is headed for defeat, assuming he has a credible opponent.

But Walker, despite his legendary performances on the gridiron for the state university, is an abnormally bad candidate. As the Journal-Constitution puts it, he has “a history of violent behavior and a propensity toward gaffes, lies and exaggerations on the campaign trail.”

He’s also Trumpian. As noted, both the polling and the primary show that the greater the distance between Trump and a Georgia Republican, the better the Georgia Republican is likely to fare.

Finally, let’s see how black voters are breaking in these races. In the Senate contest, in which both candidates are black, Warnock leads among this group, 77-9. While this split is disappointing for Walker, it’s an improvement from the paper’s prior poll in which Warnock’s lead was 85-9. Georgia’s black voters may not be warming to Walker, but they seem to be cooling on Warnock.

Abrams’ opponent is white. Yet, she’s faring no better among black voters than Warnock is (or should I say that Walker is faring no better among blacks than Kemp):

The poll shows that Abrams needs to shore up her support among Black voters, the cornerstone of her coalition. About 80% of Black voters say they’re backing Abrams and an additional 10% support Kemp. Abrams likely needs to push her number above 90% to win in November.

Message to Stacey: Stop sending me all that spam. I’m not black. I’m not even Georgian. And lack of funds isn’t your problem.