Poll shows Glenn Youngkin is the toast of Virginia.
But in this year's presidential race, he'd probably just be toast.
A survey of Virginia voters by Morning Consult finds that Governor Glenn Youngkin’s approval rating is now 57 percent. Only 32 percent disapprove of his work as governor..
This is an good result for any governor. It’s a remarkable one for a conservative governor in a state that, until Youngkin came along, had pretty much turned Blue.
When Youngkin became governor in January 2022, his approval rating was 51 percent, with 35 percent disapproving. His numbers have steadily improved since then despite non-stop criticism from the media over his conservative policies and initiatives.
Youngkin’s strong poll numbers have rekindled speculation that he will enter the race for the 2024 GOP nomination. Youngkin says he’s focused on Virginia’s legislature elections this November, but has not ruled out a presidential campaign.
I don’t see any reason for him to rule out a presidential bid, but I also don’t see much of a case for Youngkin making one this time around. It makes more sense, in my opinion, for him to try to consolidate his hold on Virginia in the upcoming election. In January 2026, when he’ll need to step down due to term limits, Youngkin can start plotting a presidential run if the Democrats hold the White House or if Donald Trump occupies it.
This assessment follows from my view of the 2024 race (which, of course, may not be Youngkin’s view of it and may be incorrect). As I see it, Trump is very likely to be the Republican nominee, and any candidate with an outside chance of giving him a good run is likely to get the DeSantis treatment. In other words, Trump will mock and attack him, thereby causing the Trump base to dislike him. Since a chunk of Trump’s current base may still be under his sway in the next presidential cycle, any candidate interested in the 2028 nomination is best advised not to enter the 2024 race unless he has a decent shot at defeating Trump.
It must be tempting for Youngkin to think he has a decent shot, given his success, against the odds, in Virginia. But he should keep in mind that DeSantis has enjoyed amazing success in Florida, but been unable, thus far, to parlay that success into a strong campaign against Trump.
DeSantis’ problem, as I discussed here, is that (1) he’s been lunable to make substantial inroads with Trump’s supporters (about half the party’s voters) and (2) in the process of trying to make these inroads by taking Trumpy positions or more extreme ones, he’s alienated many in the half of the party that is not pro-Trump.
It also seems to be true that DeSantis isn’t a particularly good campaigner, and he has made some unforced errors (RFK Jr. for a high-level job in his administration?). But even if he were a better campaigner, the dynamic described above would probably conspire to prevent his nomination.
If DeSantis collapses, Youngkin might think there’s an opening for him. But how would he hold up against the dynamic that’s undermining DeSantis?
I don’t see Youngkin making much headway with core Trump supporters. He doesn’t give off the kind of vibes they seem to be looking for.
For the other half of the party’s voters, Youngkin would just be one of several candidates vying for support. He won’t have alienated this portion of the party by being too Trump, but neither will Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott have done. And they, along with DeSantis, will have a substantial head start on Youngkin.
Accordingly, my view is that as long as DeSantis remains a force in the race, Youngkin has no shot. If DeSantis collapses, Youngkin has only a remote shot.
The only path I can see for Youngkin is one in which Trump collapses. Then, there would be an open scramble for the race in which Youngkin, if he has entered in time, would have a fair chance of prevailing.
But what reason is there to believe the Trump campaign will collapse? His legal troubles? The New York case over payments to Stormy Daniels is a joke. That indictment strengthened Trump and a conviction might strengthen him more. Surely, it wouldn’t hurt him.
The Florida indictment for obstructing justice, mishandling classified information, etc. is strong. A conviction might hurt Trump.
But that trial won’t occur until May at the earliest. By May, the primary season will be over. (There are other indictments coming, but I don’t want to comment on them until I see them, except to say that these trials will likely occur in the second half of 2024, if then.)
Youngkin can’t wait until May to enter the race. In fact, with the debates starting soon and vigorous campaigning already underway in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, he probably can’t wait for more than a few months.
Therefore, the smart play, it seems to me, is to focus on the Virginia election in November. GOP success in that election could pave the way for Youngkin to win legislative victories that should stand him in good stead if he seeks the presidency in 2028.
And in the very unlikely event that the 2024 landscape has changed enough by early November to create a realistic opening for Youngkin, he might still have just enough time to enter the current race.