Polls say Virginia is in play
So is its governor
Last month, a poll of likely voters in Virginia by Roanoke College had Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied, each with 42 percent support. Biden led by two points when other candidates were presented as options, but this was still a statistical dead heat.
And this month, a Fox News poll of registered Virginia voters also shows Biden and Trump tied. Both had the support of 48 percent of respondents. Trump was viewed less favorably than favorably — 43-55. But Biden’s favorability rating was just as upside down — 42-56. The survey encompassed more than 1,107 registered voters.
Some commenters dismiss these polls. Biden, they note, carried Virginia by 10 points in 2020. How could Virginia now be tied when national polls don’t show anything close to a 10 point swing in favor of Trump?
But these are the only two polls reported by Real Clear Politics since the first half of January. They cannot be so easily discounted.
Nor are their results rendered implausible by national polling. Yes, the national numbers on average show Trump with only a two point lead over Biden. But in 2020 Trump lost the national popular vote by a little more than four points.
If he is now up by two points nationally, we would expect him to have gained six points in an average state. This would put him within striking distance of Biden in Virginia.
Furthermore, Virginia appears to have moved towards the GOP since 2000 to a greater degree than the average state. In 2001, Virginians elected Glenn Youngkin governor. His margin was two points. The Republican candidate lost the previous gubernatorial race by nine points. The swing, therefore, was 11 points.
In 2023, Democrats won control of both chambers of the Virginia state legislature. However, the margins were razor thin. Democrats won 51 of 100 seats in the House of Delegates. In the Senate, the Democrats took 21 of 40 seats. Their vote total in all Senate races combined was only one point higher than the Republican vote.
Given all of this, it is quite possible that Trump and Biden are currently tied in Virginia. And even if Biden is ahead, it’s likely that the state is in play.
It’s probably no coincidence, therefore, that Glenn Youngkin is now under consideration to be Trump’s running mate. So says Trump himself. Other than Tom Cotton, I can’t think of anyone I’d rather see on the ticket with Trump.
The days of picking a running mate for the purpose of winning a particular state are thought to be long over. But picking Youngkin would do more than help Trump in Virginia.
Youngkin is that rare conservative who’s able to present himself as non-threatening to middle-of-the-roaders. That’s how he became governor of Virginia.
To be sure, Youngkin would come across as threatening to many just by being on the ticket with Trump. And, of course, the mainstream media would do everything it could to reinforce that impression.
But Youngkin has that Mr. Suburbia look, and a demeanor to match. Trump could do a lot worse for a running mate.
It would seem like a critical mass of rural voters in Virginia have had their "They hate me...they really hate me" moment, similar to the SW Pennsylvania voters of the sort who had labored under the delusion that it was still the party of JFK but came awake in '16 to put Trump over the top.
If the candidate weren't Trump we would be talking about landslide territory. Biden is that bad. So unfortunate. Still Biden and the left have to be stopped. Trump should certainly pick a mainstream Republican, one who if he/she were the nominee would be leading the march into landslide territory. I think many people despairing over the choice between a senile Biden leading the leftist march towards destruction and a narcissistic insult comic might be inclined to believe that a "normal" veep could lead the party back to normalcy if given the chance to replace Trump or run him or herself in four years. Of course the Trumpsters will scream "uniparty" but they aren't going to abandon Trump over this.