Polls suggest Trump's honeymoon period is over. Does it matter?

To answer my own question, I don’t think it matters much that Trump’s approval number appears to have fallen and that key things he’s done since taking office about a month ago don’t poll well. But before I explain this view, let’s look at the numbers.

Last week, Trump’s approval number in polls by Post-Ipsos, Reuters, Quinnipiac, CNN and Gallup ranged from 44-47 percent. That’s a reversal from most previous recent polls. They had Trump in the rare air (for him) of positive territory.

Key Trump decisions fared worse in the polls. Pardoning people convicted of violent crimes related to the January 6, 2001 riot polled terribly (14 percent approved, 83 percent did not). Laying off large numbers of federal workers polled badly (39 percent approval, 58 percent disapproval). So did shutting down US AID (33-56, on average). Banning transgender people from the military polled below 50 percent. Tariffs on steel and aluminum were a poll loser (34-49).

Giving Elon Musk a major role in the administration was viewed negatively by a nearly 2-1 ratio. Giving Musk access to large amounts of data about Americans is viewed as a concern by 63 percent of poll respondents, compared to 37 percent who aren’t concerned.

The Post-Ipsos polls says that Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy by 53-45 percent. Not surprisingly, given the primacy of the economy in voters’ minds, this split closely tracks Trump’s overall approval number.

The Reuters poll says that only 39 percent approve of Trump on the economy. That’s lower than Trump’s approval in this realm ever was during the first administration. I suspect it’s an outlier.

CNN found that 62 percent of Americans think Trump hasn’t done enough to try to reduce the price of everyday goods. Even Republicans agreed with this assessment by a narrow margin. Similarly, Reuters found that only 32 percent approve of Trump’s handling of inflation. (Just how Trump could have brought prices down in such a short time is unclear.)

Do any of these numbers matter much? I don’t think so — not this early in Trump’s term.

Trump’s approval rating and other numbers will matter next year, as the midterms approach. This year, they matter only to the extent that they constrain Trump’s ability to do what he wants.

Trump is unlikely to be constrained by bad numbers, standing alone. He’s used to them and not tends not to believe them when they don’t favor him.

In theory, Congress could constrain Trump, but that’s not likely to happen in a non-election year. The Senate has already confirmed all of Trump’s Cabinet selections, including the oddballs. It will undoubtedly confirm his judicial nominations.

Congress may (or may not) balk at an occasional legislative initiative, but Trump’s poll numbers would have to drop precipitously before congressional Republicans break ranks this year. They want to give the party leader the benefit of the doubt and some fear the electoral consequences of not doing so. Even with bad overall poll numbers, Trump could have a major influence on Republican primaries in most states.

The numbers on Trump’s handling of the economy are meaningless right now. It’s how the economy is perceived next year, especially from the summer on, that will matter.

If the economy is perceived to be in good shape, with inflation tamed, it won’t matter what people think about Trump’s pardons, the slashing of the federal workforce, or Elon Musk. Trump will be popular. If not, he won’t be, even if he succeeds on his immigration promises.

If anyone associated with the administration should worry about the current poll numbers, it’s Elon Musk. If his numbers remain low or get worse, I can imagine Trump reducing Musk’s role or cutting him out completely.

Trump tends to discount his own bad numbers, but might not ignore Musk’s — and might not be inclined to wait for a strong economy to wash away the effects of his buddy’s unpopularity.

I assume Musk looks at the polls, too. Maybe that’s why he advocates sending a $5,000 check to every tax paying family and calling it the DOGE Dividend. The checks would be sent after the expiration of DOGE in July 2026, just in time for the midterms.

July 2026 is about the time we should start focusing on Trump’s poll numbers. But few news junkies on either side of the political spectrum will be able to resist looking at them regularly this year. I know I won’t be able to.