Previewing the U.S.-Holland match [UPDATED]
All but one of the seven teams I discussed as contenders to win the World Cup made it out of their group and into the knockout stage. The exception was Germany, which lost out to Spain and Japan.
Japan, a team I did not preview, is the only side to gain wins against two top contenders. Not only did the Japanese beat Germany, they also took down Spain (but managed to lose to Costa Rica). In fact, unless Cameroon upsets Brazil later today and sneaks into the knockout round, you can make the case that no team other than Japan that advanced out of its group defeated even one high-quality opponent. [UPDATE: Cameroon did upset Brazil, but did not make it out of the group. However, I overlooked South Korea’s victory over Portugal and Morocco’s win over France. Brazil, France, and Portugal all played many of their reserves because they had already advanced, but they still fielded formidable teams, so let’s give credit where credit is due.]
The U.S. also made it to the knockout round, albeit just barely and from a group that didn’t impress. For all the quality in our buildup play, we scored just two goals.
Tomorrow, the U.S. will face Holland in the Round of 16. The Dutch are a good team, but all things considered I think we’re lucky to have drawn them as an opponent. The folks who say this is a winnable game for the U.S. are right.
FiveThirtyEight puts America’s chance of prevailing at 34 percent. The Athletic came up with almost the identical number, 35 percent. I have no idea how either did its computation.
I’d probably go a little higher than 34-35 percent. But, as discussed below, fitness issues surrounding two key players — one for each team — make predicting this match rather dicey.
What are the strengths of this Dutch team? We can start with its coach, Louis van Gaal. The term “wily veteran” aptly describes him. He’s managing Holland for the third time. In his last stint, he took the Dutch to third place at the 2014 World Cup, losing to Argentina on penalty kicks in the semi-final. His was a talented team, but the third-place finish seemed like over achievement.
Van Gaal has also managed European club giants Ajax, Manchester United, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich. He won the European Championship (Champions League) with Ajax and was runner-up for that crown with Ajax and Bayern.
Van Gaal is 71 years old, but seems to have kept up with the modern game. His decisions at this World Cup have been sound so far. Andries Noppert (Heerenveen), the goalkeeper he plucked from obscurity for this tournament, has looked sharp, and van Gaal didn’t hesitate to drop his big name center back, Matthijs DeLigt, after the Bayern man struggled in the team’s first match.
Speaking of center backs, the Dutch have one of the world’s best in Virgil Van Dijk (Liverpool). The big man isn’t playing at the same level as in 2020, when he was arguably the best player in the world at any position. However, he figures to be the best player on the field tomorrow.
Unless that player is Cody Gakpo (PSV Eindhoven, but not for long). He’s the breakout star of the tournament so far, having scored three goals in three matches.
Gakpo normally plays as a left winger, curling into the middle and using his lethal right foot. He can also play just behind the center forward, bombing towards goal and threatening to score with either foot and his head.
This has been his favored position at the World Cup. To cope with the threat Gakpo poses in that role, the key is to limit the space between our defensive line — the back four — and the midfield line. That way, other than in counterattacks, someone should always be near Gakpo when he receives the ball and someone should be available as cover if he spins past the first man. (Note, though, that this approach might make it more difficult for the U.S. to shift into attack.)
To counter this tactic, the Dutch may need another top-notch attacker on whom our defense must also concentrate. On paper, they have one — Memphis Depay (Barcelona). The problem is that Depay isn’t fully fit and firing, or hasn’t been so far.
If Depay is fully fit and playing at his normal level, the U.S. defense will have its hands full. Tim Ream has excelled for us so far, but he’s not s speedster and neither is Walker Zimmerman. Cameron Carter-Vickers (son of former basketball star Howard Carter) is reasonably fast, but may not be ready to cope with world-class forwards. Iran’s forwards, who are far from world class, caused Ream and Carter-Vickers problems at times.
The Dutch team does have one weakness, in my opinion — its wingbacks. (Van Gaal deploys three center backs flanked by two wingbacks.) Denzel Dumfries (AC Milan) on the right side is speedy but not very reliable. Daley Blind (Ajax, ex-Manchester United) was a mainstay of van Gaal’s 2014 World Cup team, but at age-32 and playing a position that puts a premium on pace, now seems rather ordinary.
The Dutch midfield isn’t a weakness, but I give the U.S. the edge in this area. Frenkie de Jong (Barcelona) is excellent (though a bit sloppy at times in the two World Cup matches I’ve seen him play). However, the U.S. trio of Tyler Adams (Leeds United), Weston McKennie (Juventus), and Yunus Musah (Valencia) seems clearly superior to de Jong and (pick two out of three), Marten de Roon (Atalanta), Stephen Berguis (Ajax), and Davy Klaassen (Ajax, ex-Everton).
How will the match play out? Under van Gaal, Holland likes to press. Our center backs will need to pick the right passes out of the back and complete them. Ream has been a good distributor of the ball. Carter-Vickers does this reasonably well, too, as far as I know. This, plus his superior speed, might cause Berhalter to give him the nod over Zimmerman, with the MLS star coming on if/when the Dutch go big with Wout Weghorst (6-6, with Beşiktaş in Turkey).
A big question for me is how aggressively the U.S. will attack Holland. In the past, our tendency has been to sit back against big-name teams. Think of the last time we played a knockout stage match, against Begium in 2014, when Tim Howard faced constant bombardment on the way to setting the World Cup record for saves in a match.
U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter seems to favor a more aggressive approach, and it’s easy to make the case for it. He used it against England, which has a better attack than Holland, and it worked well enough. We failed to score, but England failed to punish us. And Holland poses nothing like the threat Belgium did in 2014, when we felt obliged, with good reason, to retreat into a shell.
However, Holland poses enough of a threat to make a case for caution. When the U.S. attacks all out, we are spearheaded by our two fullbacks, Serginio Dest (AC Milan, a native of the Netherlands) and Antonee Robinson (Fulham, ex-Everton). Sending these two high up the pitch would leave Gakpo and Depay free to run down the flanks at our relatively slow center backs. Tyler Adams would provide cover, to be sure. However, as well as he’s playing, Adams isn’t superman.
If the U.S. is willing to bomb forward with more than just its frontrunners, the match should be an exciting ride. If not, it may be a cagey affair.
I’ve left a big question for last: the status of Christian Pulisic (Chelsea), hero of the 1-0 victory over Iran). Pulisic has just been pronounced fit enough to play tomorrow, but will he be fit enough to contribute at a high level? If he is, I think it makes sense to attack Holland aggressively, even if Depay is fully fit. If he’s not, a more defensive approach might be the better way to go. But Berhalter may not know the level of Pulisic’s fitness until after preparation for the match is largely complete.
And speaking of uncertainty, here’s a final wild card. Van Gaal says his team has been hit by a flu that is still spreading. Reportedly, the full team was able to train today (Friday), but didn't have its usual 11 vs. 11 match.
Will van Gaal have his full squad available tomorrow? How fit will Pulisic be? Will Depay have shaken off his rust? We’ll find out all of this, and more, tomorrow.