Argentina and France will square off in the World Cup final tomorrow. In the early stages of the tournament, France was playing better soccer than Argentina and their superstar, Mbappe, looked like the best player in the competition.
Recently, though Argentina has looked the better team and Messi the best player. The scores of the last two matches (2-1 against England and 2-0 against Morocco) have flattered France. Meanwhile, Argentina looked dominant in its last two games, with the exception of the final 15 minutes of regulation play against Holland.
What happened? The French have suffered from missing some important players due to a virus. This, on top of injuries that ruled out star players — Benzema, Pogba, Kante, Kimpembe, Nkunku, and Lucas Hernandez — altogether.
In the months before the tournament, I thought that France’s talent pool was deep enough that the team could reach the quarterfinals playing its second string. Now, the question has become whether it can win the World Cup playing half of its second string.
For its part, Argentina has jelled, as teams often do during the course of a month-long tournament. Before the tournament, I opined that Messi’s supporting cast is inferior to those with which he failed to win past World Cups, but that this version of Argentina might play better as a team.
That’s what has happened. Past stars didn’t blend very well with Messi because they wouldn’t do his running for him. In other words, they wouldn’t put in the extra effort needed to cover for the fact that Messi doesn’t do much work on defense.
That’s no longer the case. For example, Alvarez may not be the lethal striker that Aguero and Higuain were (not yet, anyway), but he works tirelessly both in attack and defense. (Mauricio Pochettino, a former star for Argentina who coached Messi at Paris SG, makes this point here, while being diplomatic enough not to disparage past teammates of Messi.)
Argentina’s set-up also helps cover for Messi. Unlike Mbappe, who plays on a wing, Messi lines up centrally when the other team has the ball. Argentina has played all kinds of formations — three center backs or two; three forwards or two — but Messi is never charged with tracking back on a flank. Alvarez, his fellow forward, does this for him, with the help of a hard working midfielder like DePaul or Paredes.
Contrast this with France’s set-up. Mbappe lines up wide left. When he doesn’t track back, it exposes Theo Hernandez, the left back. (Theo is filling in for his brother Lucas who was injured early in France’s opener. He’s more of an attacking threat than Lucas, but not as good a defender.)
That’s why, in the England match, Saka (aided by Henderson) posed a non-stop threat to France. It’s why, in the Morocco match, Hakimi and Ziyech terrorized the French once the Moroccans finally focused their attack on that side.
To be sure, Hernandez receives support from the French midfield, especially Rabiot before he became ill. But without the help of Mbappe, he’s still been exposed.
France solved this problem late in the Morocco match by moving Mbappe to the middle (where he created the second French goal) and bringing on Thurman to track back on that flank. The move may have saved the match for France. However, it meant taking off Giroud, whose goals are essential to the French unless they are ahead.
Giroud is a big, traditional center forward. He’s willing to do the defensive work associated with that position, but that doesn’t include defending on the flank.
It figures, then, that when Argentina has possession tomorrow, it will focus its attack on the French left, with Messi featuring prominently, of course. It will be up to the French manager, Deschamps, to induce Mbappe to help out. He is, after all, just 23 years-old, not 35 like Messi.
Who will win tomorrow? I understand the odds-makers rate the match even. That’s a reasonable assessment.
I give a small edge to Argentina, though. As noted, they’ve been playing better soccer than France lately and may have a tactical advantage. On the other hand, we’ve seen teams look like world beaters for a match or two, only to fail at the next time of asking. Brazil and Portugal are the best examples.
Then, too, there’s key information we don’t have. What formation will Argentina play? More importantly, who will France have available to play?
According to one report, Upamecano and Rabiot are back in training, but Varane and Konate (the starting center backs against Morocco) have been hit by the virus, and Hernandez and Tchouameni also missed practice. Of these players, Varane and Tchouameni, the spine of the defense, seem almost irreplaceable.
I’ll be pulling for France and, above all, for a relatively healthy French team that perhaps will give us a memorable World Cup final, whichever team prevails.
As between Argentina and France.................ummmmmmmm.........................go Tar Heels.
Well, was a brilliant WC final. At the half I really thought Argentina had it in the bag.
Of course, Argentina can’t help themselves and their over-the-top physical play let France back in it.
As a Tottenham supporter I was pulling hard for Lloris but I was pretty sure he would be at the disadvantage in a penalty shootout. In one of the rare instances when I happened to be right about something, I so wish this time I hadn’t of been.
I also believe Karim Benzema would have been the difference needed to bring France to victory. But that’s not Argentina’s fault and, as much as I hate to admit it, their triumph is well deserved.