Report: Biden administration considered trying to oust Netanyahu by "scrambling" Israeli politics after the October 7 massacre

Joe Biden’s hostility towards Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is well known. So was the hostility of Biden’s former boss, Barack Obama.

According to former Biden White House officials, Team Biden’s hostility was so intense that, following the October 7 2023 massacre, it discussed trying to bring about Netanyahu’s ouster from office. Some of the reports surrounding this story seem to overstate what actually happened. Nonetheless, what appears to have happened is bad enough.

One of the former officials who reported on the Biden administration’s discussions regarding Netanyahu is Ilan Goldenberg. During an interview with Israel’s Channel 13, Goldenberg said the Biden administration was considering measures to trigger new elections for the purpose of forcing Netanyahu out:

The idea would be to either force Netanyahu to come on board [with the Biden policy of ending the war in Gaza quickly and negotiating the release of hostages], or scramble Israeli politics, and see if you can trigger elections.

This idea was premised on polling at the time that, according to Goldenberg, showed opposition leader Benny Gantz at 37 [Knesset seats], Netanyahu at around 15, and “Joe Biden still incredibly popular in Israel.” If these polls were accurate, Biden might well have been in a position to throw his weight around in Israeli politics to the detriment of Netanyahu.

It’s important to note, however, that the reporting on Goldenberg’s statements is about what some White House officials discussed. Nothing in the reporting I’ve read suggests that Biden himself was on board with, or even considering, the course of action discussed.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Biden was considering such a course. There’s also a very real question as to whether Biden was still running his administration in late 2003. Nonetheless, absent specific reporting of Biden’s involvement and of the carrying out of a plan, it’s not accurate to say, as some commentators have, that Biden or his administration attempted to oust Netanyahu or even that this option was being seriously considered (as opposed to just being discussed).

Now let’s focus on the broader issues of (1) when, if ever, it’s acceptable for the U.S. to try to influence the politics of a democratic ally and (2) whether it would have been acceptable to do to Netanyahu what some in the Biden team talked about doing in the aftermath of October 7, 2023.

I’m not convinced that, as a general matter, there’s anything wrong with the U.S. trying, in a foreign election, to help one candidate or political party at the expense of another. Clearly, it’s important that our allies be led by candidates and parties that are closely aligned with American interests.

For example, in a race between two candidates in a NATO country, one of whom wants to remain in NATO and one of whom wants to withdraw and move closer to Russia and China, I think the U.S. should take reasonable, non-counterproductive measures to support the former candidate. Similarly, I think it would be okay for the U.S. to take reasonable, non-counterproductive measures to tilt the political scale against a leader who wanted to leave NATO and appease Putin.

I emphasize that any steps the U.S. takes when it involves itself in foreign politics should be reasonable. We can’t be assassinating democratically elected leaders we don’t like. Nor should we indulge in dirty tricks — invented stories, for example.

In the case of Netanyahu, the reporting I’ve seen talks only of “scrambling” Israeli politics. It doesn’t say what members of Biden’s team were thinking of doing to achieve the scrambling.

As to the idea of interfering in any way with Israeli politics following the October 7 massacre, to me the matter is a little less straightforward than some critics of the Biden administration would have it. That’s because the lives of U.S. hostages were at stake.

The events of October 7 forced Netanyahu to choose between two priorities: crushing Hamas militarily and securing the release of hostages. The two goals weren’t mutually exclusive, but one had to take priority over the other.

Netanyahu decided to prioritize crushing Hamas — the right decision in my opinion. But this wasn’t the optimal course for the hostages, including the American ones.

Therefore, it’s understandable that the Biden administration might be unhappy with Netanyahu’s priorities. And from that unhappiness, it’s understandable that the administration might consider trying to force Netanyahu to accede to Biden’s goals of ending the war in Gaza quickly and negotiating the release of hostages and, failing that, consider trying to undermine Netanyahu electorally.

Nonetheless, I believe it would have been improper for the Biden administration to have proceeded in this fashion. First, the American stake in the outcome of the Gaza war/hostage negotiations was very small compared to the Israeli stake. Americans made up a small percentage of the hostages. In addition, of course, the war was about the security of Israel, not the U.S.

Second, the months following the October 7 massacre were incredibly fraught for Israel. For the U.S. to big-foot the politics of a traumatized ally in that desperate moment would have bordered on the obscene.

The reporting I’ve seen doesn’t specify when, exactly, Biden officials were considering interfering with Israeli politics. However, it’s clear that this was happening when Netanyahu’s poll numbers were at rock bottom. That means it was happening very soon after October 7, before Netanyahu’s effective prosecution of the war restored his popularity.

In my view it would have been highly improper for the U.S. to try to scramble Israeli politics at that time. And the fact (if true) that important players on Biden’s national security team were thinking about doing this speaks very poorly of the Biden administration.