Republicans select two women to contest key Virginia congressional seats
Two Trump-backed candidates lose in Georgia
Yesterday’s Republican primaries yielded noteworthy results in Georgia, Alabama, and Virginia. Most readers are probably aware of what happened in Georgia and Alabama, but maybe not so much in Virginia.
To recap Georgia, in the Sixth Congressional District, the Trump-endorsed candidate, Jake Evans, lost to Rich McCormick by a ratio of 2-1. Similarly, in the Tenth District, Vernon Jones, whom Trump backed, lost to Mike Collins by a ratio of 3-1. It should be noted, however, that both McCormick and Collins ran as pro-Trumpers.
In Alabama, Trump endorsed candidates accomplished a rare feat — winning and losing the same GOP Senate primary. Rep. Mo Brooks, whom Trump backed until Brooks fell well behind in the polls, lost to Katie Britt, whom Trump endorsed after she took the lead. The margin was around 65-35.
In Virginia, the GOP is hoping to pick up two congressional seats in November — the Second District seat held by Elaine Luria and the Seventh District seat held by Abigail Spanberger.
The Second District includes Virginia Beach, Williamsburg, and parts of Norfolk and Hampton. Yesterday, State Sen. Jen Kiggans won the Republican primary easily.
Kiggans, a former Navy helicopter pilot, has a good shot at defeating Rep. Luria. She’s solidly conservative, but as a comparatively mild-mannered female candidate should appeal to swing voters in this highly competitive district.
Luria is also former Navy. She served as a commander.
Luria is pretty good on defense issues. That counts for a lot in this district, but perhaps not enough in this case. Accordingly, Luria is banking on her role with the January 6 committee — she will have a big part to play in the closing argument — to enable her to survive the expected Red Wave.
We’ll see whether that turns out to be a good bet.
The Seventh District encompasses a large chunk of central Virginia. The GOP primary there was in some ways the most interesting of last night’s races.
It featured three main candidates — state Sen. Bryce Reeves, Prince County Board Supervisor and auxiliary sheriff’s deputy, Yesli Vega, and political newcomer Derrick Anderson. Reeves came across as the “establishment” candidate. Anderson was the outsider. Although Trump didn’t endorse anyone in the race, Anderson struck me as the most Trumpy candidate of the three.
Vega, who served as co-chair of Latinos for Youngkin, was high-energy. She vigorously pursued Hispanic voters while running what the Washington Post calls a “firebrand” campaign that denounced illegal immigration.
Vega’s conservative credentials, never in doubt, were reinforced by Ted Cruz, who campaigned with her. Ginni Thomas also endorsed her.
Vega prevailed. She captured around 29 percent of the vote. Anderson, the outsider, was next at 24 percent. Reeves finished third with 20 percent.
Vega, age 36, is an attractive candidate — a young, energetic, conservative Hispanic woman with a background in law enforcement. However, Spanberger will try to paint her as too radically right-wing. Yet, Vega can make a good case that, although Spanberger styles herself a moderate who “works across the aisle,” she has followed the Democrats’ leftist line on spending, climate change, and guns.
A faux moderate Democrat. Imagine that.
One Republican analyst calls Vega the “future of the party.” That’s a big statement considering that Vega won less than 30 percent of the vote in a low-turnout primary.
However, the victories of Vega, Kiggans, and Britt may signal a bright future for female Republican female candidates. And Britt, age 40, and Vega, age 36, may signal a trend towards nominating young, fresh candidates.
But the future can wait. What matters now is winning seats in 2022.
The Cook Political Report rates the Luria-Kiggans race a toss-up, as does Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. I think that’s right. Still, for what it’s worth, I give Kiggans the edge. Biden carried this district only narrowly, and redistricting has made it slightly more red.
Kiggans looks like a strong candidate. Luria’s best hope is that her performance on the January 6 committee tilts the race her way. It might, but that’s asking a lot in the current climate.
Cook rates Spansberger’s race a toss-up. Sabato has it “leans Democratic,” but says he might soon move it into the toss-up category.
That’s where I think it belongs. These are two attractive candidates, and I think the outcome will be determined by how big the Red Wave turns out to be.