Test scores plummet due to the long shut-down of in-class learning.

Pre-pandemic patterns and policies mean a comeback won't be easy.

What’s the least surprising news story of the month? I think it’s this: Standardized test scores for students throughout America have declined dramatically from what they were shortly before the pandemic.

The Washington Post reports:

Student test scores declined across the country, particularly in math, and not one state saw an increase, according to the most comprehensive look at the impact of the pandemic on student achievement to date.

Declines were seen among high- and lower-performing students alike, for both fourth and eighth graders in math and reading. Overall, scores fell to levels not seen in two decades. . . .

The portion of eighth-graders rated proficient or better in math fell to 27 percent, from 34 percent in 2019. Average math scores for eighth grade fell by eight points, from 282 in 2019 to 274 this year, on a 500-point scale, and in fourth grade, by five points — the steepest declines recorded in more than a half century of testing.

It could not have been otherwise in light of the decision to suspend in-class learning for long periods of time due to the pandemic. That decision was indefensible because students faced virtually no risk of serious illness from covid and the risk to their parents and to the vast majority of teachers was very small, given their ages.

Corey DeAngelis, senior fellow at the American Federation for Children, took a close look at the array of results reported by National Center for Education Statistics. There were no surprises there, either.

The longer the school closings, the lower the test results (Catholic schools apparently managed to maintain student test scores at pre-pandemic levels). The “Bluer” the state, the longer the closure and the sharper the decline in scores. The stronger the teachers’ union in a given state, the longer the closure and the sharper the decline. It’s the teachers’ union, after all, that insisted on obscenely long closures, and the Democratic politicians they support financially who imposed them.

Fortunately, kids are resilient. In theory, there’s no reason why test scores can’t bounce back to pre-pandemic levels, or close, in a few years.

But this depends on the quality of the instruction they will receive. And there’s very bad news on that front. Even before the pandemic, test scores were declining.

According to the Washington Post:

The declines registered [in 2022] were particularly troubling given that American academic performance was already shaky. In early 2020, before the pandemic upended schools, NAEP test scores in both reading and math declined for 13-year-old students, the first drop registered since the tests started to be administered in 1969.

“The pandemic simply made it worse,” Education Secretary Miguel Cardona told reporters Friday.

It’s not difficult to identify at least some of reasons why test scores were declining before the pandemic. The war on homework, the war on school discipline, the push for “equity” in grading, and the emphasis on woke indoctrination all come to mind.

The education establishment’s answer to fallen test scores isn’t to address any of these defects. Instead, of course, it wants more money — never mind the fact that school systems throughout America haven’t used large sums of money already allocated as pandemic relief.

If public schools are going about instruction the wrong way, more money will help only marginally. It’s unlikely to help close most of the shortfall in test scores.

Here’s the good news. As a result of the lengthy school closures and the rise of wokeism in education, parents have lost faith in public education. Private school enrollment is rising and this is very likely to continue. The school choice movement is gaining strength, even obtaining support (or at least lip service) from Blue State gubernatorial candidates Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania and Gov. Pritzker in Illinois.

At the same time, parents are trying to increase their influence over public school education by winning local elections. I wish them well, but suspect they’re fighting too much of an uphill battle.

It’s not that parents can’t win some of these elections. The can and will.

The problem, I fear, is that teachers can work around adverse election results, finding ways to continue doing what they’ve been doing, including the things that led to declining student achievement even before the pandemic.

In sum, there’s plenty of bad news on the K-12 education front — terrible test scores, misguided education approaches and priorities, a powerful teachers’ union, an overwhelmingly leftist group of teachers in much of the country.

The good news is less apparent, but real. Parents are disenchanted with public education. They are making their displeasure known by voting in elections and, more importantly, by voting with their children’s feet. Politicians are starting to notice.

On balance, I see more basis for pessimism than for optimism, but maybe that’s normal for people my age. We’ll see how all of this plays out.