The Baltimore Orioles: From 52 wins to 101 wins in two years

Last year, in a post called “The Baltimore Orioles: From 52-110 in 2021 to a winning record in 2022,” I tried to explain how the Birds of Baltimore increased their win total from 52 to 83 in one season. I noted the Orioles very heavy reliance on “analytics,” but pointed out that this is not unique. Most baseball teams rely heavily on analytics these days — staffed (and often run) as they are by math geniuses from the best colleges.

The Orioles, though, are better at this than just about everyone else. As I wrote, “not all geniuses are created equal.”

The gap between Baltimore’s Ivy Leaguers and most of baseball’s other data wizards seems all the more pronounced now that the Orioles have taken another remarkable leap forward this season. Their win total jumped from 83 to 101. They have the best record in the American League and the second best in all of baseball.

I don’t want to repeat my views on how the Orioles nearly doubled their win total in just two seasons while developing the top farm system in baseball. Interested readers are invited to read them here.

In this post, I’ll focus on one element of the front office’s wizardly that really stood out this year — the ability to take “distressed assets” and turn them into stars.

The two shining examples are Yennier Cano and Ryan O’Hearn. Cano, age 29, was obtained in what seemed at the time to be an odd trade in which the Orioles sent all-star reliever Jorge Lopez to the Minnesota Twins for a bunch of players few had heard of.

Most of the return consisted of prospects. But, to recycle an old line, Cano was a suspect not a prospect.

The Cuban had achieved some success in the minor leagues, but always in situations where he was old for the level at which he played. His major league experience was limited to 13+ innings for the Twins, in which he pitched to an ERA of 9.22. After the Orioles acquired him in mid-2022, he pitched to more than double that ERA in 4+ wild innings.

But this year, Cano was nearly unhittable in the Spring Training and during a brief stint in Triple A. He was also nearly unhittable when the Orioles called him up to the big club. If I recall correctly, it was 20 innings or more until anyone scored against him, and there was scarcely a hard-hit ball during that span.

Come the all-star game, there was Cano, pitching a scoreless inning for the AL and striking out two NL stars. Moreover, Cano sustained his success in the second half of the season, ending up with a 2.11 ERA and a WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) of exactly 1.00.

What was the secret sauce in converting Cano from a distressed asset into an all-star? From what I understand, the Orioles’ analytics department focused not on what he hadn’t been able to do consistently (even in the minor leagues) — throw strikes — but rather on what he did very well — get great movement on his pitches. Then, as I understand it, they tweaked his arm angle a little bit.

With the resulting ball movement, major league batters initially were unable to lay off his slider and change-up as they moved out of the strike zone. When they began to lay off, Cano became a little less effective. However, with the confidence he had developed and his ability to throw a 95 mph fastball for strikes, Cano remained a top reliever.

Ryan O’Hearn, age 30, is the other great turnaround story. O’Hearn had a lengthy record of failure at the major league level. From 2019-2022 his batting averages for Kansas City were: .195, .195, .225, and .239. His OPS (on-base average plus slugging percentage) never exceeded .650 — poor for any player and unacceptable in a first baseman/corner outfielder.

The Orioles picked O’Hearn up after Kansas City finally released him. Like Cano, he excelled in Spring Training and at Triple A, thus earning an early call-up.

O’Hearn immediately started raking. For most of the season, he led the Os in OPS and maintained a batting average of better than .300. A late season slump dropped his OPS to .801 — still excellent and only slightly behind those of all-star Adley Rutschman and likely Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson — and his batting average to .289 — still best on the team.

What was the secret sauce in O’Hearn’s turnaround? I don’t know. Increased confidence is the easy answer. But I’m pretty sure that analytics-based scouting had something to do with the decision to acquire him and that analytics-based coaching had something to do the success that gave rise to his new-found confidence.

Finally, I want to mention the amazing success of Kyle Bradish, who this season went from relatively unknown back-end starting pitcher to one of the top five starters in the American League. The Los Angeles Angels drafted him in the fourth round of the 2018 draft. He was, therefore, a prospect, but not a very highly-regarded one.

The Orioles obtained him along with a few other borderline pitching prospects for Dylan Bundy after the 2019 season. Nothing in Bradish’s minor league numbers (ERA 4.28 in high-A ball) suggested that he was destined for big time success in the majors.

Neither did Bradish’s rookie year (2022) performance for the Orioles. Last year, his ERA was 4.90 and his WHIP was 1.40.

But working with the analytics folks and the pitching coaches, Bradish was developing a slider with a spin-rate to die for, along with a two-seam fastball that breaks in the opposite direction of his slider. After a slow start to the 2023 season, everything came together. Bradish ended up with a 2.83 ERA and a WHIP of 1.19. His second-half stats are better than that.

Bradish and Cano exemplify the Orioles’ philosophy of building a pitching staff. Whereas the front office has great confidence in its ability to draft hitters, it shies away from drafting pitchers with high picks, probably because it’s so hard to predict which amateur pitchers will develop arm trouble.

The philosophy, therefore, is to acquire pitchers who are already playing professionally — either through trades or free agency. It worked for head-man Mike Elias in Houston and it’s working for him in Baltimore.

How will the Orioles fare in the post-season? It’s hard to say, but their path won’t be easy. Due to the quirky way the post-season is set up, they might well face the Tampa Bay Rays in their first round.

Tampa Bay has the second best record in the AL, having won 99 games. They are as good as the Orioles and would be better than them but for injuries to some of their best pitchers and the suspension of their star shortstop.

If any franchise has a better “secret sauce” than the Orioles it’s the Rays. A series between these two low-budget, super-smart organizations would be an intriguing toss-up, as I see it.