The Trump indictment

Here are my immediate (and not very hot) takes on the decision to indict former president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump:

First, the New York prosecutor’s case against Trump is garbage. Almost everyone knows this, even the editorial board of the Washington Post.

Second, the Post’s editors fret that a failed prosecution of Trump in the New York case could put in jeopardy possible prosecutions over the January 6 events and the taking of documents to Mar-a-Lago. It could, but I doubt it will.

Third, the garbage indictment may lead to protest demonstrations. Such protests would be understandable and, if non-violenet, reasonable.

Fourth, if the protests become violent, some Trump-hating Democrats won’t be unhappy. The January 6, 2021 rioting has largely receded from the consciousness of the general public. A new outrage would help fill the void.

Fifth, this indictment won’t be the last indictment of a former president by a local prosecutor looking for applause and/or acting out hatred. Democratic ex-presidents will have less to fear than their Republican counterparts because D.C. prosecutors won’t touch them and prosecutors in Blue states, from which Democratic presidents generally hail, won’t be likely to, either.

However, Bill Clinton came from Arkansas, where the Whitewater investigation arose. A local prosecutor could easily have gone after Clinton and, certainly, his wife. Pete Buttigieg comes from the Bright Red Indiana. If he somehow becomes president, Buttigieg might have to worry about local Hoosier prosecutors conjuring up crimes for which to prosecute him.

Sixth, the potential for mischief isn’t limited to former presidents. The risk of garbage prosecutions designed to take down prominent office holders has just risen.

Seventh, the conventional wisdom is that this indictment will help Trump secure the GOP presidential nomination. This is a plausible view.

There was a time in America when even a garbage indictment relating to paying hush money to a porn star would have been a political minus for the defendant. But that time has probably passed.

However, a poll by Echelon Insights cuts against the conventional wisdom. It found that an indictment of Trump by the Manhattan District Attorney would harm, not help, Trump with Republican voters deciding whom to support for president. We’ll see.

Eighth, I gather that most Democrats regard Trump as easier to defeat than any credible GOP rival. If so, it’s fair to ask whether the decision to prosecute Trump in New York was motivated by a desire to help him become the nominee.

I don’t think it was. The Manhattan DA’s decision requires no explanation beyond his ambition and his campaign promises. If more explanation is needed, I would cite what I assume is his animus towards Trump. However, we can’t rule out the possibility that a desire to help the Democrats win in 2024 also factored into his decision.

Ninth, if the DA is trying to help the Dems, he might have overplayed his hand. It’s possible that this prosecution won’t just help Trump with Republican voters. It might also help him with independents.

Tenth, there are more criminal law-related chapters to be written about Trump between now and the 2024 election. What will happen with this prosecution? What other prosecutions of Trump, if any, will emerge?

Until we read these chapters, any attempt to assess the political impact of yesterday’s indictment is even more speculative than the usual chatter this far in advance of a presidential election.