Last night, Donald Trump finally made it official. He is running for president again.
I didn’t see all of Trump’s address, and I doubt that many others did either. Fox News cut it off so its commentators could praise the address. In the old days, Trump was too fresh and too entertaining to be talked over.
This was a subdued, low-energy performance. Trump called it “very elegant.”
I don’t know about elegant, but Trump’s performance made him seem more presidential than he typically did when he was president. I wish he had presented himself more like this back then.
Fox News’ Jason Chaffetz commented that if Trump keeps delivering speeches like last night’s, his chances of a successful presidential bid will be substantial. But can Trump keep his base fired up with this subdued speeches? I’m not part of that base, so I can’t say.
Can this type of speech enable Trump to win back less ardent supporters who have become disenchanted with the former president’s bluster? Maybe. However, once you’ve worn out your welcome, it’s not easy to get it back.
But the threshold question is whether Trump will continue to deliver mild performances like last night’s. The odds are against it for several reasons.
First, the last thing Trump wants to be is boring. It’s also the last thing his “his people” want him to be. Last night, Trump bordered on the boring.
Second, Trump isn’t likely to stop using social media. And, as Trump himself reportedly said, the key to a good tweet is “just the right amount of crazy.” I just don’t think Trump has the discipline to remain “elegant” for long.
Third, it may be a while before other Republicans jump into the race, but once they do, Trump will shed any remaining restraint. Trump considers it disloyal for anyone he supported to stand in the way of his latest bid for the presidency. It would be totally out of character for him to refrain from lashing out in over-the-top ways at Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, and especially Mike Pence, whom he considers a traitor.
In short, Trump is going to be Trump. The question is whether Republicans have had enough of it, given that Trump long ago stopped winning.
Some recent polls suggest most Republicans have had enough. But here’s a very recent Morning Consult poll finding that, although DeSantis has seen a surge of support since the midterms, he still trails Trump among Republicans by 47-33.
Nate Silver has more on DeSantis’ chances of defeating Trump. He concludes:
For now, both DeSantis and Trump look like extremely plausible nominees, and anyone else is a distant third.
I consider DeSantis the more plausible of the two, but maybe that’s wishful thinking.
Ron the Second will defeat Dementia Don.
I prefer DeSantis but this is all a moot point if the Republicans don’t spend hundreds of millions on ballot harvesting. Candidate quality, issues, campaign strategy, advertising are essentially meaningless. PA, MI, and AZ proved it.