Trump's interview with Bret Baier

Was there method to his madness?

Last night, Fox News aired an interview that Bret Baier conducted with Donald Trump. Much of the interview consisted of Trump responding to Baier’s questions about the former president’s indictment.

Astute commentators like Ed Morrissey and Jonathan Turley have pointed out that, in his answers to Baier’s questions, Trump made admissions against his legal interests. Most notably, Baier asked Trump why he didn’t just turn over all of the documents the government sought — and eventually subpoenaed. Trump responded that he “want]ed] to go through the boxes and get all my personal things out.” Then, he added, “I was very busy.”

Trump thereby acknowledged that he withheld documents that were subpoenaed. That he was very busy and wanted more time is no defense — not to failing to produce the documents and certainly not to playing hide-and-seek with the feds.

I agree that Trump did himself no legal favors with this answers to this line of questioning and some others. But I want to add three observations.

First, from a legal standpoint it’s not clear that Trump has any defense to the obstruction charge. Thus, he may not have given anything away.

Second, from a political standpoint, it makes sense for Trump to keep spouting arguments, including bad ones, that will help the faithful keep the faith. Equally, it make sense for him to spar aggressively with people like Baier to show that he’s still effective in verbal combat with media stars.

Third, Trump’s best way out of his legal fix is probably through politics, not law.

On the legal side, even without the interview Trump and his attorneys wouldn’t have been able to deny that he failed to turn over documents that were covered by a subpoena. Therefore, Trump’s tacit admission that he didn’t produce them didn’t give away much, if anything.

Trump also claimed that the documents about U.S. war plans that he showed and/or discussed with unauthorized personnel weren’t classified documents, but rather newspaper articles in the public domain. However, according to the indictment, Trump is on tape saying that the material in question was “secret” and “highly confidential.” Maybe his defense will be that he lied to the people he was recorded talking with.

I suspect the prosecution could overcome that defense, but I don’t know that Trump has a better one available that he foreclosed due to the interview.

Although Baier made the interview mostly about law, for Trump I think it was mostly about politics. I believe his purpose was to outtalk the Fox News host, not to outlawyer, or even outreason, him.

From the point of view of a Trump supporter (if I’m able to discern that point of view), I think Trump succeeded. He was aggressive. He took shots at a range of folks Trump’s backers consider villains (including a few shots at Fox News), and he had an answer for everything.

In short, he gave his supporters reason to believe he can still be their effective champion.

That’s Job 1 for Trump. Polls show that he has around 50 percent support among Republicans, far more than any rival. However, at this early stage of the race, it may well be that a meaningful portion of Trump supporters is willing to consider other GOP contenders.

The key for Trump, therefore, is to maintain the backing of that portion of his support. He can reasonably believe that the best way to accomplish this is to show that he’s better equipped than his rivals to do battle with the Democrats and the media. This, I suspect, was what the interview with Baier was really about from Trump’s perspective.

For anyone else facing felony charges, Job 1 would be avoiding prison. But Trump can reasonably believe that politics — getting himself elected president — provides the best means to that end.

If he’s elected president, it’s difficult to envisage Trump going to jail. Being convicted before the election would harm, and possibly wreck, his chances of being elected president. Thus, Trump will want to delay the trial until after the election.

The judge in Trump’s case has just scheduled the trial for August of this year. That seems unrealistic, especially in view of the handling of classified information required in this matter. In addition, Trump will have the right to appeal, and perhaps some non-frivolous grounds for appealing.

It’s quite uncertain how all of this will play out. Trump defied conventional wisdom during the Baier interview, and maybe he harmed his legal and his political prospects in the process.

But maybe there was more to the interview than just Trump’s lack of impulse control. Maybe there was method to his madness.