What did Sinwar accomplish?

The demise of Yahya Sinwar seems like a good time to reflect on what he hoped to achieve by massacring Israelis on October 7, 2023, and whether he achieved it. Obviously, Sinwar wanted to murder as many Jews as possible because he was a bloodthirsty psychopath. But he was too intelligent a psychopath not to have thought about the aftermath of the massacre.

What did he think would happen? What did he hope would happen?

Sinwar knew Israel would respond with a massive attack on Gaza. But he likely viewed this as a feature rather than a bug. For one thing, Israel’s response would serve the interests of Iran, Sinwar’s paymaster, by preventing Israel and Saudi Arabia from agreeing to a treaty, at least in the short term.

In addition, Israel’s response would harm its standing in the world. Joe Biden would denounce the response as “disproportionate.” Europeans would go further and call it “genocide.”

Above all, Sinwar must have hoped for a wider war against Israel. Hezbollah, he figured, would join the fight. Iran might eventually be drawn in.

Hamas, of course, would come under withering attack. However, Sinwar may have thought that holding so many hostages, including some Americans, would protect Hamas against thorough destruction. Israel’s response would be far more vigorous than past actions in Gaza, but under pressure from the U.S., Israel might stop short of the devastating war that, it turns out, we’re witnessing.

I suspect that Sinwar expected a win-win. Either (1) Israel’s response would eventually be moderated through a ceasefire agreement, under which many hundreds of Palestinian terrorists would be released and Hamas would easily survive or (2) the response would be so cruel as to alienate Israel from the U.S. and bring Iran into the war.

Either outcome would have suited Sinwar.

Sinwar might also have thought that the war would put the so-called two state solution on the table. It seems clear that Sinwar was not a fan of any “solution” under which Israel remained a state. I doubt that the prospect of two states influenced his thinking.

Sinwar ended up getting option (2) — all out war interrupted only by a brief ceasefire. The tut-tutting, soft-on-terror crowd (David Ignatius, for example) argue, therefore, that Sinwar got what he wanted, or at least a favorable outcome.

There’s some truth to this. Israel has been widely condemned throughout the world and its standing with the Democratic party is at an all-time low. Israel is at war with Hezbollah. War with Iran is possible.

But so far at least, the war with Hezbollah hasn’t gone at all well for the bad guys. Yes, around 70,000 Israelis have had to leave their homes temporarily. But Israel has inflicted far more damage on Hezbollah than these terrorists have inflicted on Israel.

As for Iran, there has been no real war yet and, as discussed below, I doubt the mullahs are happy with the way things have gone so far.

What the tut-tutters overlook is that to some degree, Israel may regard the wider war as a feature, not a bug, of its response. Reportedly, Israel has been planning for a war with Hezbollah since the end of the last war in 2006. Hezbollah’s response to the war in Gaza provided Israel the opportunity to degrade Hezbollah, kill its leaders, and inflict death and humiliation with exploding pagers.

I doubt that many Israelis want war with Iran, at least not until they have the capacity seriously to degrade the mullahs nuclear program. But there’s something to be gained from having exposed Iran as a far less formidable force than it was thought to be.

For years, Iran has been perceived as untouchable. With its proxies Hamas and especially Hezbollah ready to wreak havoc on Israel and key Gulf states, and with its own missiles capable of wreaking even more, war with Iran seemed nearly unthinkable to most.

Now, however, Hamas has nearly been crushed; Hezbollah has been degraded with more degradation to come; and Iran has been shown to be largely incapable (for now) of effectively attacking Israel with missiles. Thus, the idea of an attack on Iran is no longer unthinkable. In fact, Israel is now thinking about what kind of an attack to launch.

It’s true, apparently, that Israel can’t effectively attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure; nor, apparently, is it willing to disrupt world markets by attacking its oil facilities. However, the latter attack will probably be on the table if Iran sends missiles at Israel again. And a joint U.S-Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear program might be on the table if Donald Trump is elected president.

Iran must be quite displeased by what’s gone down since October 7, 2023.

To summarize, I believe much that’s happened since October 7 of last year has gone as Sinwar expected and hoped. Nonetheless, Israel is the clear winner of the aftermath of the massacre, in my view. Hezbollah and Iran are in a significantly worse position than they were on October 6, 2023. Hamas, of course, is in an infinitely worse position.

Knowing what he knew when he was killed, would Sinwar have launched the Oct. 7 attacks? I think so. As a bloodthirsty psychopath, killing so many Jews probably made the enterprise worthwhile regardless of the aftermath.

But would a more rational terrorist have launched the attacks? Probably not.