Why I think a Trump second term would be worse than his first

The other day, I ended this post by saying, “a second Trump term would likely be considerably worse than his first term was.” That statement drew some pushback, both in the comments section and in private emails from friends.

One commenter asked me what the basis is for my prediction. It’s a fair question. I will try to answer it now.

Before listing my reasons, though, I want to make it clear that (1) I don’t subscribe to the view that a Trump second term would mean the end of “our democracy” or any other doomsday scenario his most severe critics fret about, (2) in listing the problems I see with a Trump second term, I don’t mean to deny the possibility that a second term might be better, in some respects, than his first, and (3) by no means am I saying I would vote for Joe Biden, or any other Democrat, in 2024.

With that out of the way, here are the reasons why I think Trump would be a worse president the second time around:

First, I think he would be less respectful of the Constitution and of democratic norms. Until Election Day 2020 went against him, Trump, in my view, was reasonably respectful of the Constitution and its norms (at least as much so as Barack Obama and Joe Biden). After the election, Trump was not.

He urged Mike Pence to act unconstitutionally and summoned a mob to Washington to pressure Pence to do so. He adopted cockamamie legal theories to justify his position on what Pence could do to prevent Biden’s certification as winner of the election. He stirred up the mob he had summoned to the point that some members put Pence’s safety in jeopardy.

Since that day, Trump, in my opinion, has obstructed justice with his attempts to prevent the government from retrieving documents that do not belong to him. And he has adopted what I consider to be an absurd view of his power to declassify documents — the view, in essence, that if a president thinks about declassifying something, it is declassified.

As a matter of common sense, it seems likely that, in a second term, Trump’s approach to the Constitution and the law will more closely resemble the one he has adopted since November 2020 than the one he followed before that. Some of the facts recited below buttress that view.

Second, it also seems likely that in a second term Trump will be fixated on punishing his enemies. That fixation might well (1) distract him from his important legitimate duties as president and (2) cause him to insist on unjust prosecutions. Thus, while the fixation might be understandable given the way Trump’s enemies have treated him, it would be destructive in practice.

Trump has made it clear that he wants to investigate Joe Biden and some of his family members. Given the rules we’re playing by now, I have no problem with this. Indeed, Joe Biden deserves to be investigated and, depending on the results of a fair investigation, perhaps prosecuted.

But according to reports, Trump is interested in revenge against others he deems his enemy. The list of reported targets includes his former chief-of-staff, General Kelly; his former attorney general, William Barr; other Justice Department officials; the former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Mark Milley; and even his former lawyer, Ty Cobb.

These reports may be exaggerated, but my view of Trump is that he’s spiteful enough to go after at least some of these folks. Indeed, Trump reportedly wanted to investigate his enemies during his first term, but was persuaded not to by fair-minded officials and advisers.

But it’s unlikely that Trump will be influenced by such advisers in a second term. Indeed, some of these people may become targets.

This leads to my third point, which relates to both of the first two: Trump in a second term will likely surround himself with lawyers who either are second rate or are simply unwilling to tell him “no.”

In his first term, Trump received, and generally followed, legal advice from outstanding lawyers like William Barr, Don McGahn, and Pat Cipollone. In a second term, he likely will get his advice from lawyers similar to the ones who provided him with deeply flawed advice after the 2020 election —e.g., Jeff Clark, Sidney Powell, and Rudy Giuliani.

In his first term, Trump (and conservatism) benefited from the advice of the Federalist Society. For example, his two best Supreme Court nominees, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, came from a list provided by Leonard Leo of the FedSoc. (Bret Kavanaugh, a somewhat less sound nominee, did not.)

But now, Trump no longer trusts the Federalist Society. He is at odds with Leo, blaming him for pushing the nomination of Rod Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General, which Leo says he did not do. In addition, the lawyers Trump now listens to consider the Federalist Society crowd to be squishes.

Russell Vaught, a key adviser to Trump, claims that “the Federalist Society doesn’t know what time it is.” By this, I take it, he’s adopting the theme of the National Conservatives that we’re in a time of such crisis that old conservative values like strict adherence to constitutional norms doesn’t cut it.

For example, conservatives have traditionally called for cutting back significantly the power of the administrative state. Trump’s efforts to do so were one of the best things about his first term.

But the National Conservatives don’t want to curb the power of the administrative state. They want to use that power to impose their agenda.

Ironically, the power of the administrative state is, in my opinion, the main evil that the traditional democratic process is ill-equipped to counter. Other evils — e.g, mass illegal immigration, rampant crime, failing public schools, and wokeism — can be addressed by winning elections. The permanent federal bureaucracy seems immune to election results.

Yet, as just noted, the National Conservative movement wants maintain that power and put it to new uses. Donald Trump seems to be on board (or maybe the National Conservatives are on board with him). This is another reason why I expect a second term to be worse than the first.

Fourth, turning to straight policy issues, Trump is seriously contemplating the imposition of a 10 percent universal baseline tariff. He was into tariffs during his first term, but did not go that far.

I believe such a tariff would raise prices (as if inflation isn’t a big enough problem already) thus prompting interest rate hikes; invite retaliation by our trading partners; and make it more difficult to work with allies in the fight to curb Chinese influence and power. I also doubt that the tariffs would significantly boost the American manufacturing sector. They might even hurt it.

Fifth, Trump might well pull the plug on U.S. aid to Ukraine. His current stance differs from the one he took in his first term. Then, he backed greater aid for Ukraine than Barack Obama had provided (albeit only after a brief ham-handed attempt to tie the aid to Ukraine’s willingness to investigate the Bidens).

Ending or significantly reducing military aid to Ukraine move would likely enable Putin, whom I regard as a major enemy of the U.S., to snatch success from the jaws of humiliating failure. It would establish Putin’s now-discredited military as triumphant conquerors and a force to be reckoned with in Europe.

By the same token, the U.S would be discredited (as if what happened in Afghanistan isn’t discrediting enough). As a result China would be more likely than it is now to attack Taiwan.

And by the way, Trump’s claim that he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours shows either (1) that he’s completely divorced from reality or (2), if we’re generous, that his shameless boasting has taken on a new, even more farcical turn.

Sixth, although I favor Trump’s quest to curb illegal immigration, it worries me that Trump favors a drastic cut in legal immigration. He also favored this during his first term, but couldn’t get it done. In a second term he might.

Depending on how he plans to go about this, a second Trump term could mean a serious curtailment of the flow of talent and brain power to the U.S. And we need all the talent and brain power we can get.

I recognize that there are those who view some, or maybe even all, of the items on this list as features of a Trump second term, not bugs. But they are the main reasons (though not the only ones) why I fear that his second term would be worse than his first one was.