Will Biden's support for Israel hurt him in November 2024?

Joe Biden’s decision to bless Israel’s decision to go to war with Hamas and to supply the Israelis with weapons is supported by a large majority of Americans. Nonetheless, it might hurt his reelection bid.

The problem for Biden stems from the fact that many Democrats are anti-Israel and oppose his decision to back the Jewish state’s war of self defense against Hamas. According to a survey taken by Quinnipiac in the days after Hamas’ massacre of more than 1,000 Israeli civilians, 29 percent of Democrats oppose the United States sending weapons and military equipment to Israel. 60 percent approve. (Republicans favor sending weapons and equipment, 79-19.)

Fewer than half of the Democrats surveyed said their sympathies in the Middle East are with Israel. 22 percent said their sympathies are with the Palestinians. (Among Republicans, the split was 86-3.) 28 percent of Democrats said the U.S. is too supportive of Israel. (Only 7 percent of Republicans said this.)

There is, then, a large group of Democrats — somewhere between 20 and 30 percent of them — that opposes Joe Biden’s stance on the hostilities in the Middle East.

Those in this cohort who feel strongly about the subject have alternatives to voting for Biden in 2024. They can stay home. Or they go to the polls and vote for Cornel West who has criticized what he calls Biden's "baleful, one-sided comments" about the Israel-Hamas conflict — as if Hamas has a legitimate side to take. (Getting on the ballot may prove difficult for West, though.)

At the end of this article, the New York Times discusses the potential electoral problem Biden’s stance poses, including the Cornel West option. Citing the Quinnipiac poll, the Times notes that most young Democrat voters (age 18-34) oppose giving weapons to Israel. So do most Muslims.

Thus, the Times speculates that this issue could cause two reliable Democrat constituencies — Muslims and the young — to withhold support from Biden next year. Citing a Democratic strategist who specializes in supporting left-wing challengers in congressional races, the Times suggests that some anti-Israel Dems will vote for West.

It’s impossible to say how many Democrats will defect over this issue. But in a close election, even the defection of a small percentage of normally Democrat voters could make a difference.

Moreover, the leakage of Biden votes might be more than minimal in Michigan, a potential swing state. As this Newsweek article reminds us, Michigan has a large Palestinian-American population. At anti-Israel rallies in the Detroit area, speakers, including the execrable Rep. Rashida Tlaib, have warned that they “will not forget” being “spit on” (as one speaker put it) by Biden.

Biden’s team is aware of the problem. That’s probably why he kept denouncing “Islamophobia” during his talk tonight.

I doubt, though, that these denunciations will overcome the anti-Biden sentiment among Muslim voters that the president’s other remarks and his decision to provide military aid to Israel have aroused.

Newsweek quotes two professors of politics (both of whom teach in England) who say Biden’s support for Israel won’t hurt him, come November 2024. They rely on the fact that most voters are swayed by economic, not foreign policy issues and that Biden will likely be running against Donald Trump.

I agree with the professors to this extent: The odds are that Biden’s pro-Israel stance, shared by Trump, won’t cost him the election. But it almost certainly will cost him support.

Palestinian-Americans and young Americans aren’t like most voters. And it’s not clear that in a contest with Biden, Trump will be seen as quite the bogeyman the two professors deem him to be.