Youngkin up, Biden down in Virginia
A new Roanoke College poll tested the popularity in Virginia of Governor Glenn Youngkin and President Joe Biden. Youngkin passed. Biden failed.
According to the poll, 53 percent of Virginians approve of Youngkin’s performance, while 35 percent disapprove. This gap of 18 points represents a significant improvement since February. Back then, shortly after Youngkin took office, the gap, according to Roanoke’s poll, was 9 points, with 50 percent approving and 41 percent disapproving.
Youngkin’s improvement in the Roanoke poll is due to a decrease in Democratic disapproval. In February, only 30 percent of Democrats approved. Now, 41 percent do.
Assuming these results accurately reflect the direction of public opinion in Virginia, why has Youngkin’s standing among Democrats improved? I don’t think it’s because he’s moderated his positions on the issues that drove his campaign — law enforcement and, above all, education.
Youngkin has ended “equity initiatives” at the commonwealth’s department of education, citing their divisiveness. He has taken on Loudoun County’s woke school board, seeking a procedural change that would force the entire board to face elections this November.
He called for a comprehensive report on the performance of Virginia’s public schools. Based on the grim findings of that report, he seeks revised school accreditation standards and an improved assessment system to get schools back to focusing on their true mission — educating students, not promoting “equity.”
Youngkin has also kept his promise to promote law enforcement. Backing the police, he vetoed a bill that would have allowed the Arlington County Board, rather than the county manager, to hire an auditor to investigate possible police misconduct. The governor explained:
The best way to ensure that any bad actors within law enforcement are held accountable is to stand up for law enforcement, not tear them down or subject them to politically-motivated inquiries.
Democrats hope to gain political mileage from the abortion issue, now that a draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade was leaked. Virginia might seem like fertile ground for this strategy. The Roanoke poll found that 32 percent of Virginians agree with the draft opinion (including 22 percent of Democrats), while 56 percent disagree. (How many of those surveyed had read the draft, though?)
Youngkin denounced the leaking of the draft opinion and reminded Virginians that he is pro-life. Yet, his approval rating with Democrats has improved. It’s almost twice as high as the percentage of Virginia Dems who want Roe overturned.
Could it be that Youngkin’s traditionalist, common sense views on education and crime have considerably more support among Democrats in once-Red Virginia than many suppose? I suspect so.
As Youngkin’s standing improves, Joe Biden’s declines (though the drop is at the edge of statistical significance). His approval rating is now at 37 percent, down from its previous low of 41 percent in February. He has lost ground among both Republicans and Democrats.
Biden is doing slightly better than Youngkin’s predecessor as governor. Democrat Ralph Northam’s approval rating fell from 41 percent to 34 percent. Unlike banging one’s head against the wall, Northam’s woke regime feels even worse when it stops.
Donald Trump has also lost popularity in Virginia, according to the Roanoke poll. He is viewed favorably by only 34 percent of those surveyed. 59 percent view him unfavorably — a decline in favorability from the previous poll that’s attributable, says Roanoke, to the sentiments of Republicans and Independents.
As unpopular as Joe Biden is in Virginia, it’s questionable whether Trump would carry the state against him. Youngkin clearly would, as things stand today.
How will Youngkin’s ratings look a year or two from now? There’s no way to know.
But we know enough to understand the formula for maximizing Republican prospects for electoral success in Virginia and, I believe, many other states. It’s the Youngkin formula — hit Democrats hard on education, crime, and wokeness in general, but do so without the kind of Trump-style posturing and nastiness that alienates so many swing voters.