How is it possible that people do not realize that dementia is a progressive disease process. By next year Joe Biden may not remember his wife's name, much less which political party he belongs to. His age should not be an issue.............it's all about his dementia.
Under what likely circumstances would black leaders, or black voters more generally, become convinced, before he won the nomination, that Biden cannot win the general? If declining health is your scenario, or some other roll of the dice, you might as well assume that Biden will be the Democrat nominee for the general and stop discussing any other scenario.
The economy slips into recession. Biden's approval rating slips back into the 30s. Polls consistently show him running behind Trump and DeSantis by more than the margin of error.
This isn't "roll of the dice" stuff. These are plausible scenarios under which black leaders could easily conclude that Biden won't win the general election.
Even at his lowest in the polls, no other Democrat benefited in the polling. Who would they turn to in your scenario? There is no obvious alternative. Newsome? Bernie?…Harris? None seem obvious to me as the go-to alternative. And frankly, the prospect of a recession seems rather like a dice roll to me at this time. The economy could just meander along as it has for quite awhile.
The only scenario in which I see movement away from Biden is when DeSantis declares and it becomes obvious in the primaries that he will win the Republican nomination. At this point, it’s reasonable to assume that it will be a two-horse race in the GOP primary only if DeSantis runs. IF DeSantis is the likely nominee, then you have not only the prospect of Biden facing a Republican whose ceiling hasn’t been tested, but the prospect of a stark generational difference on display guaranteed to unsettle Democrats and generate second thoughts. But then, who? Democrats have beaten Trump with Biden and they are convinced that they can do it again. I doubt that will change as long as Trump remains viable; in particular if he becomes the nominee. In any case, that is a lot of ifs to happen if Biden stays healthy enough to run again: a hostage to fortune.
Maybe I don't understand what you mean by roll of the dice. The consensus seems to be that there's a 50-50 chance of a recession (47 percent in the last projection I saw). My guess is that there won't be, but it's certainly plausible to believe there will.
There doesn't need to an alternative to Biden that's obvious this far out. Trump wasn't obvious to anyone but maybe himself in Jan. 2015. Plenty of people counted Biden out as late as Jan. 2020.
If party leaders sense the ship is sinking, they will probably find a new captain -- possibly Newsom. For Democrats it's always about maintaining power.
I'm not saying Biden won't be the nominee. I think he probably will be. But I don't see why we should "stop discussing any other scenario."
However, with this response I will stop discussing any for now.
Well, 50-50 is a (fair) coin-flip; which is simply to reiterate my original point. Perhaps it was too strong to say that one should “stop discussing any other scenario.” This was just my way of saying that at this point the Fates seem more in charge than man.
How is it possible that people do not realize that dementia is a progressive disease process. By next year Joe Biden may not remember his wife's name, much less which political party he belongs to. His age should not be an issue.............it's all about his dementia.
Under what likely circumstances would black leaders, or black voters more generally, become convinced, before he won the nomination, that Biden cannot win the general? If declining health is your scenario, or some other roll of the dice, you might as well assume that Biden will be the Democrat nominee for the general and stop discussing any other scenario.
The economy slips into recession. Biden's approval rating slips back into the 30s. Polls consistently show him running behind Trump and DeSantis by more than the margin of error.
This isn't "roll of the dice" stuff. These are plausible scenarios under which black leaders could easily conclude that Biden won't win the general election.
Even at his lowest in the polls, no other Democrat benefited in the polling. Who would they turn to in your scenario? There is no obvious alternative. Newsome? Bernie?…Harris? None seem obvious to me as the go-to alternative. And frankly, the prospect of a recession seems rather like a dice roll to me at this time. The economy could just meander along as it has for quite awhile.
The only scenario in which I see movement away from Biden is when DeSantis declares and it becomes obvious in the primaries that he will win the Republican nomination. At this point, it’s reasonable to assume that it will be a two-horse race in the GOP primary only if DeSantis runs. IF DeSantis is the likely nominee, then you have not only the prospect of Biden facing a Republican whose ceiling hasn’t been tested, but the prospect of a stark generational difference on display guaranteed to unsettle Democrats and generate second thoughts. But then, who? Democrats have beaten Trump with Biden and they are convinced that they can do it again. I doubt that will change as long as Trump remains viable; in particular if he becomes the nominee. In any case, that is a lot of ifs to happen if Biden stays healthy enough to run again: a hostage to fortune.
Maybe I don't understand what you mean by roll of the dice. The consensus seems to be that there's a 50-50 chance of a recession (47 percent in the last projection I saw). My guess is that there won't be, but it's certainly plausible to believe there will.
There doesn't need to an alternative to Biden that's obvious this far out. Trump wasn't obvious to anyone but maybe himself in Jan. 2015. Plenty of people counted Biden out as late as Jan. 2020.
If party leaders sense the ship is sinking, they will probably find a new captain -- possibly Newsom. For Democrats it's always about maintaining power.
I'm not saying Biden won't be the nominee. I think he probably will be. But I don't see why we should "stop discussing any other scenario."
However, with this response I will stop discussing any for now.
Well, 50-50 is a (fair) coin-flip; which is simply to reiterate my original point. Perhaps it was too strong to say that one should “stop discussing any other scenario.” This was just my way of saying that at this point the Fates seem more in charge than man.
In any case, thank you for the back-and-forth.