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Your analysis is almost certainly correct. Israel sent a fully received message to the Mullahs that While Israel is not interested in doing this dance now, it is fully capable of both defending against Iran and striking Iran with impunity. Israel also surely knew that Biden would publicly demand Israel not respond to the Iranian attack and in my view deliberately defied him to let the Mullahs know the US will not save them.

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I think you're correct with your assessment of events. You do have an advantage though: You see the overall situation as it really is and not through the warped prism of the considerable anti-Israel/pro-Hamas crowd at CNN and The Washington Post.

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