Elections in Britain and France pose danger for Israel

The EU parliamentary elections were a setback for parties hostile to Israel. I made that point here.

However, the most important elections in Europe are those that produce governments in individual countries. And, of course, the most important of these elections occur in the most important countries, such as Great Britain and France.

Both countries are about to have elections.

The outlook for Israel in Britain is poor. The Conservative Party appears to be headed for a defeat of massive proportions.

It’s true that the Conservatives have been less than stellar when it comes to Israel. However, the left-wing Labour Party is almost certain to be worse.

The Labour Party has pledged to recognize a Palestinian state. It has also promised to push for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

The Party thus seems intent on (1) rewarding Hamas for the massacre of October 7, (2) saving Hamas’ remaining fighting forces from defeat, and (3) impairing future Israeli security by creating a second autonomous Palestinian region from which Israel’s implacable enemies can launch attacks against it.

In France, the situation is more complicated. After the thumping his party took in the EU elections, President Macron called for snap elections in France. It was a bold move which, in effect, dared France to elect the “right-wing” government that had trounced his party.

The vote will be held this weekend. There are three serious contenders: (1) Macron’s party (Renaissance), (2) the National Rally or National Front (Rassemblement National — the RN, for short) of Marine Le Pen that did so well in the EU elections, and (3) the Nouveau Front Populaire (the NFP, for short).

The NFP is a coalition of left-wing parties. As discussed in this excellent article, it “brings together people who have weekly chanted “From the River to The Sea” (and sometimes “Death to Jews”), with that rump of the old-style Socialist Party that lit up the Paris City Hall and the Eiffel Tower with the Israeli flag after 7 October. Stated differently, it combines the communist Mélenchonista faction that claimed about 10 percent of the vote in the EU elections with Place Publique, a socialist party that gained just under 15 percent.

The upcoming election will result in a run-off between the two top vote-getters. If Macron’s party makes it to the run-off, odds are it will prevail in a two-way race. If Macron’s party comes in third, it sets up a contest between the leftist party and the party that’s considered far-right.

Polls suggest that Macron’s party will finish third. An Ipsos survey conducted for Le Parisien newspaper and Radio France on June 19-20 had the RN in first place with 35.5 percent of the vote. The NFP was in second with 29.5 percent. Macron’s party was ten points behind the NFP. Bloomberg’s “poll of polls” yields similar results, with the RN widening its lead.

It’s anyone’s guess how a race between Le Pen’s party and the leftist coalition would turn out.

I’ll get to the implications of the possible outcomes for Israel in a moment. First, I want to make a pet point about “far-right” European parties.

I’ve argued that the most insightful way of placing parties (and people) on the political spectrum is to consider how much government power and how much government involvement in people’s lives they favor. By this test, many parties dubbed far-right are, in fact, fairly close to far-left parties on the spectrum.

France is a case-in-point. Both the RN and the NFP favor a massive amount of government spending, notwithstanding that France is already drowning in debt. According to the Institut Montaigne, the NR supports measures that would immediately add more than 12 billion euros to the 154 billion euro deficit, as well as pension changes that would add more than 27 billion euros in costs by 2027.

Similarly, the NFP vows to lower the retirement age from 64 to 60, link salaries to inflation, and ramp up spending on public services. It says it will offset this spending by increasing taxes by 150 billion euros.

No wonder the CAC 40 stock market in Paris sank 6 percent in just a few days after the call his snap elections, with French government bonds being sold off and investors fleeing to German alternatives.

As for Israel, I think it has little to fear from Marine Le Pen’s party. Certainly, this was an anti-Semitic party years ago under Le Pen’s father. And I have no doubt that anti-Semitic vestiges remain.

But as between Israel and Hamas/Palestinians, there’s no real question about where the sympathies of Marine Le Pen and her party lie. Since October 7, Le Pen has been unstinting in her support of Israel. She promptly denounced the “pogroms on Israeli soil” and attacked the leading French leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his party for their “intolerable” stance of not classifying Hamas as a terror group.

Le Pen’s 28-year-old protege and president of the NR, Jordan Bardella, has taken the same line. “The National Rally is for many French Jews a shield in the face of Islamist ideology,” he says.

Thus, the widely respected Nazi hunter Serge Klarsfeld, who has denounced Marine Le Pen in the past, is almost certainly correct when he says that the NR is better for French Jews than the left. By the same token, it’s also better for Israel.

It’s true that there are elements within the new leftist coalition party that are neither anti-Semitic nor anti-Israel. But Mélenchon is bound to be a huge player in the NFP. And there are few major politicians in Europe who are more hostile to Israel than he is.

I shudder to imagine how Israel would fare with a France led by the NFP, a Britain led by Labour, and an America led by Joe Biden or Kamala Harris in their second term.

The first is almost a done deal. The second and third are distinct possibilities.