Hamas is the winner in deal Trump imposed on Israel

Donald Trump isn’t the president yet, though he will be a matter of hours. Yet, he has already done more to help Hamas than Joe Biden did in his entire term.

Biden helped Hamas from time to time by causing Israel to delay certain military operations and/or to conduct them in sub-optimal ways. The various constraints Biden demanded postponed the day of reckoning for some Hamas fighters and leaders. But because Biden continued the flow of U.S. arms to Israel, these fighters and leaders were destined to meet that day (and many now have).

But Trump has likely cancelled the day of reckoning for those Hamas fighters and leaders who are still with us. He has also secured the release of many hundreds of new fighters and leaders who will rejoin their comrades-in-arms.

Trump accomplished these things by pressing Israel into agreeing to that ceasefire deal with Hamas. This article confirms that Prime Minister Netanyahu was, in fact, persuaded to accept the deal by threats from Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff:

Biden officials involved in the effort acknowledged that Trump’s threats and Witkoff’s participation during the final week of negotiations played a major role in bringing across the finish line a deal they had struggled to reach for more than a year. . . .

Witkoff’s argument to Netanyahu “was basically ‘It’s up to you … either you do the ceasefire and we start the relationship, or you don’t do the ceasefire [and] you don’t give the incoming president what he wants. Then we can’t promise we’ll be engaging the way you want us to,’” said a former U.S. intelligence official briefed on the negotiations by U.S. and Arab mediators.

The report is by the Washington Post, so ordinarily skepticism might be in order. But in this case, the Post, and the Biden officials it references, are giving Trump a good deal of credit for something the Post and its readers think is desirable — the release of hostages and peace in Gaza. The article is, in effect, an admission against interest by the Post and, as such, should be taken as true.

Quite apart from the Post’s report, it should be obvious that Netanyahu wouldn’t have agreed to this deal, which has been on the table for many months, without pressure from Trump. That’s because, as I argued here, the deal is manifestly not in Israel’s interests.

Consider the hostages for prisoners swap that is already underway. It’s expected to result in the release, reportedly, of as many as 2,000 convicted terrorists, including 250 serving life sentences, plus about 1,000 terrorists captured since October 7.

I read somewhere that the IDF believes the vast majority of those released will return to the quest to kill Israelis. Clearly, many of them will.

You can read here about the list of murderous terrorists set to be released. It includes

The murderers of Asher Palmer and his infant son Yonatan, Yaya Ofer, Yanai Weissman, Erez Levanon, Border Police officer Hadar Cohen, Assaf Hershkovitz, Yair Har-Sinai, Dvir Sorek, the Worshippers’ Route massacre, the attack on the Otniel Yeshiva, the murderers of Malachi Rosenfeld, the murderer of Shalom Sherki, the Silwan cell, Eliyahu Asheri who was kidnapped and murdered, the Henkin couple who were murdered in front of their children, Ari Fuld, Reuven Schmerling.

A series of terrorists who carried out the 2015-2016 wave of terror: the Sarona Market massacre, the attack at the Panorama building, Bilal Abu Ghanem who murdered three in a shooting attack on a bus in Armon Hanatziv, the stabber of Nirit Zamora, perpetrators of stabbing attacks in Afula, Ra’anana, Yavne (Niv Nehemiah), and more.

A series of terrorists who murdered and injured even in recent years, some of whom are residents of Jerusalem: the 13-year-old boy who critically injured an IDF officer in a shooting in the City of David, and the female terrorist who stabbed in Armon Hanatziv.

They can thank Donald Trump for their freedom.

The Hamas terrorists who remain in Gaza can also thank Trump. Melanie Phillips provides this harrowing description of what they, and other Gazans, have planned for the ceasefire period and beyond:

Look at that horrifying footage of those Gaza mobs, those enormous potential lynch mobs jeering and threatening the three Israeli women as they were handed over to the Red Cross — the same mobs who abused the live hostages and desecrated the bodies of the murdered ones when they were all dragged into Gaza after the October 7 massacre; look at that footage and then tell us all again that the vast majority of Palestinian Arabs in Gaza are innocent civilians and victims of the Israelis. . . .

Look at the thousands who have emerged in Hamas uniform and armed to the teeth, vowing to carry out more and more October 7 massacres until every Jew is dead and Israel is destroyed — Hamas murder squads loudly declaring that they will use the ceasefire to regroup, rearm and attack Israel; and then listen to the politicians hailing this development as the beginning of peace.

(Emphasis added)

The ceasefire, hostage for terrorist prisoners deal would be a dreadful deal for Israel under any circumstances. It’s made worse by the fact that this deal calls for the eventual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Thus, the problem isn’t just that Hamas is now free to regroup and plan more October 7-style massacres and that hundreds of terrorist prisoners will be set free. It’s also that at the end of the deal’s phases, Israel won’t be in Gaza to prevent Hamas’ revival as a terrorist force.

It’s possible that the deal won’t hold until the end. But I fear there’s a good chance it will because Trump is likely to apply even more pressure to get it to the end than he did to put it in place. After all, Trump doesn’t want a peace deal reached during the Biden administration (albeit thanks to his intervention) to fall apart during his own administration. That would be a blow to his image as an “art of the deal” mastermind and (as he sees it) to his legacy.

According to the Post, Netanyahu’s “right-wing base” hopes that, having bowed to Trump on this deal, “the U.S. president will be more sympathetic to annexing the West Bank and waging war against Iran.” After October 7, I would have hoped that Netanyahu’s base would give negating Hamas’ threat priority over annexing the West Bank. And to be fair, elements of the base have opposed the deal.

As for “waging war against Iran,” Hamas’ sponsor, it’s a worthy objective. But Netanyahu’s base shouldn’t count on Trump backing. much less participating in, such a war. Dealmaker that he is, I believe Trump wants an agreement with Iran. Nothing about his first term suggests he wants a war.

On January 7, Trump said that if a deal between Israel and Hamas wasn’t done before his inauguration, “all hell will break out in the Middle East, and it will not be good for Hamas.” Now, a deal has been reached.

The deal is good for Hamas and carries the prospect that, once again, all hell will break out for Israel.