The Israel-Hamas deal

Bad for Israel, good for Trump

Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire deal. According to reports, the deal consists of three phases.

In the first phase, there will be a 42-day ceasefire and the release of 33 hostages. Israel will release a far greater number of Palestinian prisoners — reportedly as many as 2,000 convicted terrorists, including 250 serving life sentences, plus about 1,000 terrorists captured since October 7. It will also begin a staged withdrawal of its forces from Gaza, keeping a security perimeter and some presence in the Philadelphi Corridor.

Before we move on to the second phase, let’s pause to deplore the asymmetry of the prisoner release. It consists not only in the numbers — a ratio of 60-1 is appalling enough — but also in the nature of those released.

As I understand it, 28 of the 33 hostages set to be released are civilians. An additional five are female soldiers. It’s unlikely that any of these hostages has killed a Palestinian. By contrast, the prisoners to be released include many who have killed Israelis or are responsible for Israeli deaths.

I understand that past hostage releases have been similarly asymmetrical. But this deal is unique because it occurs in the context of a war in which Israel has inflicted a heavy defeat on the enemy. Winners don’t usually make one-sided deals that patently favor the loser.

To me it’s inexcusable for Israel to agree to the old asymmetries, which never made sense to begin with. When Israel releases massive numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including terrorists, in one of these deals, the incentive for future hostage-taking is overwhelming. Thus, Israel assures that more hostages will be taken in the future.

Moreover, releasing terrorists enables them to commit more terrorism. That’s particularly egregious in this case because it’s so clearly inconsistent with the purpose of the war in Gaza.

That purpose is to ensure that Hamas doesn’t live to fight another day. How can this be squared with the release of a thousand or more terrorists who likely will find their way back to the battlefield regardless of where they are sent initially?

The only way it might partially be squared is if the deal ensured that Gaza never becomes a battlefield again. But this deal doesn’t, which leads me to its second and third phases.

In the second phase, which is subject to further negotiation, there would be additional withdrawal of Israeli forces and protocols for Palestinians to return to Northern Gaza.

The third phase also is subject to further negotiation. However, the concept is that all remaining hostages would be released and the reconstruction of Gaza, supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations, would begin. Once all hostages have been released, Israeli forces would leave Gaza.

Israeli withdrawal of its forces from Gaza makes the deal a recipe for the survival of Hamas, which is already trying to reconstitute itself amidst the rubble. Israel can’t count on Egyptians or Qataris to keep Hamas at bay. They will be in Gaza to make money rather than to police. It certainly can’t count on the United Nations, whose personnel helped Hamas flourish and engage in terrorism.

Reportedly, the PA wants a role in running post-war Gaza. Of course it does. But the PA is Israel’s enemy and there’s no guarantee that it can thwart Hamas in Gaza, anyway.

The only way for Israel to ensure that Hamas doesn’t rise again, or isn’t replaced by another bloody terrorist outfit, is to keep IDF boots on the ground in Gaza. The third phase, if things get that far, precludes this.

Not surprisingly, the proposal faces opposition in Israel. Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionist Party and Israel’s Finance Minister, is demanding assurances from Prime Minister Netanyahu that the IDF will continue operating in Gaza once the deal is completed, so as to achieve the war goals of toppling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities. He is 100 percent right to demand this.

Smotrich’s opposition, and that of other hardline parties, won’t be enough to sink the deal in Israel because it will be supported by all mainstream parties. However, if Smotrich and the like-minded National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, leave the government due to lack of assurances about the future of Gaza, Israel could be headed for new elections.

Netanyahu would deserve to be toppled if he agrees to a deal that excludes Israel from Gaza. Indeed, I think he deserves to be toppled for his role in making the October 7 attack possible. It was Netanyahu (among others, of course, but he was the PM) who didn’t see Hamas as a serious military threat. It was Netanyahu who propped up Hamas to use it as a counterweight against the PA.

If that’s not grounds for removal, I don’t know what is.

The war in Gaza was Netanyahu’s chance to redeem himself and, to be fair, the war has gone very well. But unless Israel is present in Gaza to prevent a revival of Hamas, the war likely will not have been much of a success, in the end.

To me, the most interesting question is why Netanyahu agreed to this deal — the framework of which has been on the table for more than half a year — now. Joe Biden, who has tried relentlessly to constrain Israel, is on his way out. In less than a week, Donald Trump, who has consistently been on Israel’s side, will be in office. And Trump has warned Hamas that all hell will break out if it doesn’t release the American hostages.

Yet, Netanyahu doesn’t seem to think the Trump presidency will give him leverage in reaching a deal with Hamas. Otherwise, he wouldn’t enter into a deal now.

Why does Netanyahu feel this way? Perhaps Team Trump told him. Reportedly, Trump’s representative in the negotiations spent this last weekend persuading the PM to accept the deal.

Perhaps Netanyahu views Trump as more interested in preserving his reputation as a great dealmaker than in making a deal that fully protects Israel. (The deal occurs during Biden’s presidency, but Trump will claim that his “all hell” threat, not pressure on Netanyahu, got it done.) Perhaps Trump wants to keep those Michigan Muslims happy.

My hope is that during or after the first phase — which, as I said, is bad enough — negotiations will break down and Israel will get on with the business of killing Hamas fighters until Hamas agrees to a deal more favorable to Israel. But with Trump as president, Israel might well feel too much American pressure not to bring the deal to its disadvantageous completion.