There is indeed good news to be mined from these numbers.
But I heard equally good news in those heady days when we were scanning the horizon waiting for the Red Tsunami. It never happened.
All of these numbers go into a cocked hat at such time as (1) Trump is the presumptive nominee -- I mean, it really, really looks like he will be the GOP standard-bearer, even against Biden but even deeper into that hat if Biden has stumbled out of the race and the Democrats put up someone (most likely Newsom, but pretty much anyone who can string a few sentences together and reach the podium without collapsing), and (2) Trump acolytes are in downballot races, and (3) abortion, abortion, abortion. The GOP has utterly underestimated the power of this issue and if they don't take a reasonable position -- to the extent one can take a reasonable position on slaughter of this magnitude -- it will continue to be one of those issues that voters don't want to tell pollsters about, but that drives their decisions when they step up to those semi-private voting kiosks.
Steve -- Two things. First, as I've argued more than once, Trump should not be the nominee, if for no other reason than that he would immediately become the focus of everything (with his and the media's eager help), thus bringing yet more attention to his numerous annoying (and worse) flaws. We want to make this campaign about the Dems' record and their being in bed with Woke crackpotism. If we do that, we are going to win big.
Second, as to abortion, there are a couple of answers: Point out that for practical purposes, abortion remains available in one place or another to virtually anyone who wants one. This takes much of the sting out of the issue. Then, on the policy front, simply come to the center, which is where elections are won (to the extent they're won on policy anymore). The center on this issue seems to me to be a ban only after viability, with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.
Abortion hurt Republicans in 2022 not because their positions were unpopular, but because they could not articulate and promote their positions because Trump and his senate picks sucked up all the attention. The same is true with every policy issue: Republicans are defanged, either because all they talk about is grievances about Trump, or because the media ignore them and focus on Trump instead. Until Republicans take out Trump they will not win on abortion no matter what their positions are.
Bill: Unquestionably correct on both counts. But if 30+ percent of the primary voters will not be moved off of Trump -- and the Always Trumpers are going to get out and vote -- the campaign will inevitably, and perhaps correctly, be about him. Every single GOP candidate has to hammer, hammer, hammer the guy in much the same way as Bill Barr is doing now. He's even name-called, the difference in his name-calling being that it's accurate ("childish," "tantrum"). H/T to Chris Christie as well (“a lonely, self-consumed, self-serving mirror hog”; “a child,” “completely self-centered, completely self-consumed,” “a three-time loser”).
The attack on wokeism, and the articulation of the abortion position (yours mirrors mine) can wait until the general and Trump is in the rear view mirror -- unless, as I have improvidently predicted, he will try an independent/third-party run if he's rejected by the party.
Jfan: I also agree with you, but: In fact, large segments of the GOP (mostly, but not entirely congruent with the Always Trumpers) do take an unpopular position on abortion, and the GOP is identified with the flashier abolitionist legislation in some states and advanced by some national GOP voices.
Sooner or later we're going to have to face up to the fact that the GOP is split in much the same way as we have joyously observed the Democrats to be split, between the AOC/Warren/Sanders radicals, and the "can't we all just get along" suburban liberals. I think it's quite possible that we will see a major, and I mean jumbo, realignment of parties in the next few years. The GOP is in a great position to recapture the Squishy Middle, but will a party without the Always Trumpers that articulates a common-sense, civilized view of ordered liberty bring in enough Democratic moderates to keep from getting blown out in general elections?
Great post. I do think it's more likely the unfolding documents prosecution is likely to move the polling needle more toward disapproval than approval of the prosecution. What's out so far is just the indictment, a one-sided doc, so it seem likely Trump's situation improves when the Trump team gets its ups, particularly if it become clear that, for all Trump's improprieties, there was no real harm done, and if the Biden investigations continue to lag or are half-hearted while the attacks on Trump are full speed ahead. If I'm even half right, I see an increasing public opinion that the facts of the case do not justify a naked attempt to disable an opposition candidate for president. Jim Dueholm
There is indeed good news to be mined from these numbers.
But I heard equally good news in those heady days when we were scanning the horizon waiting for the Red Tsunami. It never happened.
All of these numbers go into a cocked hat at such time as (1) Trump is the presumptive nominee -- I mean, it really, really looks like he will be the GOP standard-bearer, even against Biden but even deeper into that hat if Biden has stumbled out of the race and the Democrats put up someone (most likely Newsom, but pretty much anyone who can string a few sentences together and reach the podium without collapsing), and (2) Trump acolytes are in downballot races, and (3) abortion, abortion, abortion. The GOP has utterly underestimated the power of this issue and if they don't take a reasonable position -- to the extent one can take a reasonable position on slaughter of this magnitude -- it will continue to be one of those issues that voters don't want to tell pollsters about, but that drives their decisions when they step up to those semi-private voting kiosks.
Steve -- Two things. First, as I've argued more than once, Trump should not be the nominee, if for no other reason than that he would immediately become the focus of everything (with his and the media's eager help), thus bringing yet more attention to his numerous annoying (and worse) flaws. We want to make this campaign about the Dems' record and their being in bed with Woke crackpotism. If we do that, we are going to win big.
Second, as to abortion, there are a couple of answers: Point out that for practical purposes, abortion remains available in one place or another to virtually anyone who wants one. This takes much of the sting out of the issue. Then, on the policy front, simply come to the center, which is where elections are won (to the extent they're won on policy anymore). The center on this issue seems to me to be a ban only after viability, with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.
Abortion hurt Republicans in 2022 not because their positions were unpopular, but because they could not articulate and promote their positions because Trump and his senate picks sucked up all the attention. The same is true with every policy issue: Republicans are defanged, either because all they talk about is grievances about Trump, or because the media ignore them and focus on Trump instead. Until Republicans take out Trump they will not win on abortion no matter what their positions are.
Bill: Unquestionably correct on both counts. But if 30+ percent of the primary voters will not be moved off of Trump -- and the Always Trumpers are going to get out and vote -- the campaign will inevitably, and perhaps correctly, be about him. Every single GOP candidate has to hammer, hammer, hammer the guy in much the same way as Bill Barr is doing now. He's even name-called, the difference in his name-calling being that it's accurate ("childish," "tantrum"). H/T to Chris Christie as well (“a lonely, self-consumed, self-serving mirror hog”; “a child,” “completely self-centered, completely self-consumed,” “a three-time loser”).
The attack on wokeism, and the articulation of the abortion position (yours mirrors mine) can wait until the general and Trump is in the rear view mirror -- unless, as I have improvidently predicted, he will try an independent/third-party run if he's rejected by the party.
Jfan: I also agree with you, but: In fact, large segments of the GOP (mostly, but not entirely congruent with the Always Trumpers) do take an unpopular position on abortion, and the GOP is identified with the flashier abolitionist legislation in some states and advanced by some national GOP voices.
Sooner or later we're going to have to face up to the fact that the GOP is split in much the same way as we have joyously observed the Democrats to be split, between the AOC/Warren/Sanders radicals, and the "can't we all just get along" suburban liberals. I think it's quite possible that we will see a major, and I mean jumbo, realignment of parties in the next few years. The GOP is in a great position to recapture the Squishy Middle, but will a party without the Always Trumpers that articulates a common-sense, civilized view of ordered liberty bring in enough Democratic moderates to keep from getting blown out in general elections?
I dunno.
Great post. I do think it's more likely the unfolding documents prosecution is likely to move the polling needle more toward disapproval than approval of the prosecution. What's out so far is just the indictment, a one-sided doc, so it seem likely Trump's situation improves when the Trump team gets its ups, particularly if it become clear that, for all Trump's improprieties, there was no real harm done, and if the Biden investigations continue to lag or are half-hearted while the attacks on Trump are full speed ahead. If I'm even half right, I see an increasing public opinion that the facts of the case do not justify a naked attempt to disable an opposition candidate for president. Jim Dueholm