Iran's attack was no "win" for Israel

And the case for Israeli "restraint" doesn't withstand scrutiny

From those urging restraint by Israel towards Iran, we’re hearing two lines about the latter’s attack on the former. First, we’re told that the attack was a “win” (Joe Biden’s word) for Israel. Second, we’re told that Iran wasn’t trying to inflict real damage on Israel — that the attack was mostly for show and that, indeed, Iran took measures to ensure that any damage would be slight.

Both lines can’t be true. If Iran wasn’t trying to inflict much damage on Israel, then the fact that it did not inflict much damage can’t possibly be viewed as a loss for Iran and a win for Israel.

Actually, neither line is true, in my opinion. Getting through an enemy attack largely unscathed might be a win by the standard of Democratic administrations in the U.S. Without more, however, it’s not a win by any reasonable standard, and certainly not by the standard of the brutal neighborhood that is the Middle East. Winning in the context of military aggression requires, at a minimum, that the aggressor suffer real injury.

Iran has suffered none. If it continues to suffer none, the attack on Israel will be a win for the mullahs. They will have unleashed a massive air assault on Israel without experiencing adverse consequences. They will have unilaterally declared the current bout with Israel “concluded,” and made it stick. The neighborhood will notice.

Nor is there a serious argument that Iran didn’t want to inflict more than token damage on Israel. No nation sends 86 explosive drones, 36 cruise missiles, and 110 surface to surface missiles towards another nation hoping or expecting that all but a few of these weapons will all be destroyed in the air.

It may well be that Iran didn’t want a large percentage of its drones and missiles to reach their targets. It may be true that Iran didn’t want its attack to have a devastating effect. Maybe it would have been satisfied with destruction of a limited number of targets and a relatively low number of Jewish deaths. This would be typical of a regime that likes to inflict death and destruction (including on Americans) in doses digestible enough to get away with it.

In this case, though, the deaths would have included civilians including, ironically, some Arab-Israelis (in fact the only serious injury was to a young Bedouin girl). Even the Biden administration has acknowledged that the Iranian attack was “disproportionate” to the attack by Israel that was targeted to kill a leading Iranian general who helped plan the October 7 attack.

Therefore, I agree with Bill that Israel must retaliate. Otherwise, as noted, this will be a win for Iran.

More importantly, without retaliation for an attack this unprecedented, both qualitatively and quantitatively, any semblance of deterrence will be forfeited. It will no longer just be Joe (“Don’t”, but they do) Biden who’s exposed as feckless. It will also be Israel.

I want to offer two additional reasons why Israel should retaliate. First, the Israel-Hamas war has caused a massive amount of suffering. Israelis experienced rape, kidnappings, and murder on a scale not seen since the Holocaust. Its economy has been damaged badly.

As for Gaza, you don’t have to believe Hamas’ health ministry and the United Nations (nor should you) to recognize the enormous amount of death and hardship there. The conflict has also resulted in loss of life in Lebanon and Syria.

The world’s economy has taken a hit. Attacks by the Houthis in support of Hamas have badly disrupted shipping in the Red Sea, with serious consequences throughout much of the world.

Iran, by contrast, has paid almost no price. Until the Israelis took out an Iranian general and terrorist mastermind who helped plan the October 7 attack, it had paid none.

Yet, Iran is behind all of the suffering and hardship the Israel-Hamas war has produced. It supplied Hamas with weapons and materiel that made the October 7 attack possible. It almost certainly signed off on the attack. A proxy like Hamas would not unleash this much hell without approval from its paymasters. Indeed, as noted, Iran helped plan the attack.

It’s time for Iran to pay a price for unleashing the hell of October 7 and since, and, indeed, the hell it’s been unleashing for decades. Its massive attack on Israel this weekend provides the opportunity to make the mullahs pay.

The second additional reason to retaliate is that Iran is rapidly developing the capacity to strike with nuclear weapons. If there’s a next air assault on Israel, the missiles might well contain nuclear warheads. Now that Iran has demonstrated that it’s willing and able to send sophisticated missiles into Israel’s airspace, the need to strike Iran hard has also been confirmed.

The nature of Israeli retaliation follows from this analysis. Israel should strike Iran’s nuclear operation.

The question, though, is whether it can do this. I don’t think there’s much doubt that, with American help, it could. The problem, of course, is that Joe Biden has said America won’t help Israel retaliate.

Israel could wait until next January in the hope that Donald Trump regains the presidency. But frankly, I’m not sure that under Trump the U.S. would participate in an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. And by next January, Iran might already have the ability to strike Israel with nukes.

If Israel concludes that it can’t strike a direct blow against the Iranian nuclear program, it should settle for striking a blow against Iran’s military capabilities. It should hit hard, but should not target civilians. Instead, the targets should include missile launchers, air-defense systems, and drone bases.

Israel should give the U.S. advanced notice, as Biden has requested, but not with enough time for the administration to give Iran notice. Nor should it negotiate with Biden over the nature of its response.

Without these sorts of strikes, Israel will not win this latest bout with Iran. As Neftali Bennett, former Israeli prime minister, says:

You don’t win wars just by intercepting your enemy’s hits, nor do you deter it. Your enemy will just try harder with more and better weapons and methods next time. How do you deter? By exacting a deeply painful price.