Is Trump correct in citing the abortion issue to explain the GOP's midterm fizzle?

Yes, but he also shares responsibility for it.

Donald Trump has declared that it’s not his fault Republicans underperformed in the 2022 midterms. Instead, he insists, “it was the ‘abortion issue,’ poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on no exceptions, even in the case of rape, incest, or life of the mother, that lost large numbers of voters.”

As Barack Obama might say, Trump is presenting a false choice. Several factors contribute to the outcome of most elections. In the case of the 2022 midterms, both Trump and the abortion issue played a significant role in the GOP’s failure to meet expectations.

Abortion played a major role, but not for the reason Trump asserts. Few, if any, candidates insisted on no exceptions, and the Republican candidates’ handling of the issue was not the real problem.

The real problem, in my opinion, was that the abortion issue deprived the GOP of the advantage that normally drives the out-of-power party’s success in the first midterm after the election of a new president — namely, a significant edge in enthusiasm.

The out-of-power party almost always has that advantage. Whether the president is Bill Clinton, Obama, or Trump, the opposition can exploit the heightened grievances of its voters sparked by the new leader’s partisan attempts to begin building a legacy. Barring unusual circumstances (such as 9/11 and George Bush’s vigorous response), the in-power party rarely can negate that advantage.

In 2022, Republicans were enthusiastic about dealing Joe Biden a big setback. Democrats seemed to lack comparable enthusiasm until the Supreme Court handed down its decision in Dobbs. Once that happened, Democratic voters were riled up — not just the leftist base but also many center-left “pro-choice” voters. Although some Republicans played into the Democrats’ hands, I don’t think there was much GOP candidates could have done to dampen this new-found enthusiasm among Democrats.

With voters of both parties about equally determined to show up at the polls, it’s not surprising that, in our 50-50 nation, the Democrats held their own.

But this doesn’t mean Trump played no role in the outcome. Although the abortion issue was the main concern that, at the margin, drove Democratic voters to the polls, the specter of Trump also helped negate the complacency that normally undermines the party in power during midterms. There’s a reason why Democratic candidates kept harping on the alleged threat to “our democracy” posed by Trump’s “election denialism.” This pitch must have gone over well with focus groups.

In addition, there was the problem of the candidates Trump elevated. Even with Democratic voters riled up, Brian Kemp prevailed in Georgia. There’s no reason to doubt that a normal GOP Senate candidate would likewise have won in that state. But Herschel Walker, a Trump creation, fell short.

Trumpy Senate candidates also underperformed in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Arizona. (In Ohio, the Trumpy Senate candidate won, but ran miles behind the normal Republican candidate for governor.) Had the Republicans won just won of the three winnable states cited above plus Georgia, control of the Senate would have changed hands.

In sum, the abortion issue ended up largely cancelling the “enthusiasm gap” that seemed likely to create a "Red Wave.” But Trump also contributed to the cancelation of that gap. And his role in candidate selection probably prevented the Republicans from taking control of the Senate, which was within the party’s grasp even in a non-wave election.