I agree fully with Paul's notes. I think Paul understates how "the specter of Trump also helped negate the complacency that normally undermines the party in power during midterms." Trump continued to dominate the news media almost as much as an incumbent president, especially compared to a subdued Biden. This made Trump a functional incumbent. After all, Trump kept claiming he won, as did plenty of Republican politicians. What is this if not a claim that Trump was, in fact, the rightful incumbent? Voting against the party of the incumbent president in 2022 therefore meant voting against Republicans.
There is, however, a way that Trump impacted the abortion issue which Paul does not discuss. Fighting against abortion was never a matter of appointing judges. It consists of persuading the public to embrace moral reformation. As a Christian evangelist argued in 2020 when explaining why he would vote against Trump, it was clear since pro-lifers lost a referendum in South Dakota several years before that no state had a majority of voters willing to abolish abortions. Fighting abortion therefore requires improving the moral character of the American people. Does Donald Trump lead to improvement in the public character, or does he damage public morals? Assuming it's the latter, it follows that every day Trump is in office, or even in the public eye, the pro-life movement loses ground.
To win a fight about abortion in 2022, pro-life politicians had to make moral and policy arguments. Trump made this impossible. This is not unique to abortion: Since Trump won the nomination in 2016 Republicans have been unable to make moral or policy arguments about anything, because to Trump the only issue is whether you are pro-Trump or anti-Trump, and all other prominent Republicans decided to accommodate him on this. Trump's grievances overwhelmed everything. As a result, issues were reduced to slogans. You see this with the right to bear arms: For the past several years people have talked about "the Second Amendment," and Trump once referred to "the Second Amendment people"; plenty of Twitter posts refer to "#2A." What you do not see any more are discussions of the right to bear arms, or even that phrase. "2A" and "the Second Amendment" have been reduced from values and ideas to slogans identifying a cultural group in a cultural war. I wonder whether some of the "2A" supporters even remember what they are fighting for. This happens with every issue. Trump made it impossible for Republicans to engage in moral discussions about abortion. They will be thwarted in every moral and policy fight until they repudiate him and his style of grievance and identity politics.
I agree fully with Paul's notes. I think Paul understates how "the specter of Trump also helped negate the complacency that normally undermines the party in power during midterms." Trump continued to dominate the news media almost as much as an incumbent president, especially compared to a subdued Biden. This made Trump a functional incumbent. After all, Trump kept claiming he won, as did plenty of Republican politicians. What is this if not a claim that Trump was, in fact, the rightful incumbent? Voting against the party of the incumbent president in 2022 therefore meant voting against Republicans.
There is, however, a way that Trump impacted the abortion issue which Paul does not discuss. Fighting against abortion was never a matter of appointing judges. It consists of persuading the public to embrace moral reformation. As a Christian evangelist argued in 2020 when explaining why he would vote against Trump, it was clear since pro-lifers lost a referendum in South Dakota several years before that no state had a majority of voters willing to abolish abortions. Fighting abortion therefore requires improving the moral character of the American people. Does Donald Trump lead to improvement in the public character, or does he damage public morals? Assuming it's the latter, it follows that every day Trump is in office, or even in the public eye, the pro-life movement loses ground.
To win a fight about abortion in 2022, pro-life politicians had to make moral and policy arguments. Trump made this impossible. This is not unique to abortion: Since Trump won the nomination in 2016 Republicans have been unable to make moral or policy arguments about anything, because to Trump the only issue is whether you are pro-Trump or anti-Trump, and all other prominent Republicans decided to accommodate him on this. Trump's grievances overwhelmed everything. As a result, issues were reduced to slogans. You see this with the right to bear arms: For the past several years people have talked about "the Second Amendment," and Trump once referred to "the Second Amendment people"; plenty of Twitter posts refer to "#2A." What you do not see any more are discussions of the right to bear arms, or even that phrase. "2A" and "the Second Amendment" have been reduced from values and ideas to slogans identifying a cultural group in a cultural war. I wonder whether some of the "2A" supporters even remember what they are fighting for. This happens with every issue. Trump made it impossible for Republicans to engage in moral discussions about abortion. They will be thwarted in every moral and policy fight until they repudiate him and his style of grievance and identity politics.
ELECTION 2022 Maps - super interesting:
https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2022/11/super-interesting-election-2022-maps.html