Poll: De Santis leads Trump among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

A poll by YouGov finds that, by a split of 42-35, more Republicans and “Republican-leaning Independents” prefer Ron DeSantis to Donald Trump as the GOP nominee in 2024. Less than a month ago, the numbers were basically reversed, with Trump preferred to DeSantis, 45-35.

YouGov conducted the survey in the three days immediately after the November 8 election — Nov. 9-11. By Nov. 11, Trump had unleashed his attack on DeSantis and made his less nasty but tone-deaf comment about Glenn Youngkin.

However, it’s not clear how many of those surveyed on Nov. 11 knew about one or both of these remarks. Anyone polled on Nov. 9 would not have known about either one.

Given the widespread negative reaction by conservatives to these recent Trump attacks, there’s good reason to believe the YouGov poll understates DeSantis’ edge among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. But we should keep in mind that this is just one survey.

Republican-leaning independents as a group have little use for Trump. They broke for DeSantis by more than a 2-1 margin in the poll.

This group is crucial for Republicans in a general election, and some of them will have a voice in some primaries. However, they aren’t likely to decide the GOP nominee for president. For that purpose, the big question is how actual Republicans feel about Trump and DeSantis.

YouGov says Trump still has the edge with this group, but that it is “nearly evenly divided.” Again, this is based on a survey that doesn’t fully capture whatever the reaction of Republicans was to Trump’s comments about DeSantis and Youngkin.

We’re more than a year from any primary or caucus. The YouGov poll, even its polling of Republicans, tells us little about what will happen during primary/caucus season.

My view, for what it’s worth, is that things will get worse for Trump. His comments about Youngkin and especially DeSantis suggest he’s already melting down. That process will probably accelerate as polls like YouGov’s show a marked decline in his popularity.

The more Trump complains about 2020 and belittles popular potential rivals for the 2024 nomination who haven’t announced their candidacy, the worse his poll numbers are likely to become. The worse his poll numbers become, the more likely he is to keep lashing out. (There’s also the matter of criminal investigations targeting Trump. These may help Trump by winning sympathy for him, but who knows how this will play out?)

For Trump the dynamic described above represents a vicious cycle. Others may view it, in a sense, as a virtuous one.