Here are silver linings: Pending final vote counts, Republicans appear to have surged in California, Florida, and New York, while Democrats only made major gains in Michigan. The California results are obscured by the fact that Democrats were so far ahead to begin with that Republicans can make major gains without winning many seats. This still cuts deeply into the Democrats' margins and makes future Republican victories possible. In LA County, for example, several Democrats in Hispanic-plurality seats have under sixty percent of the vote, though their margins do tend to mysteriously increase as mail-in votes arrive. In New York, the Republicans did better than they have since 1994. Schumer imploded, barely winning reelection as he lost Nassau, Suffolk, and Rockland Counties; this is an earthquake. For the past thirty years Republicans did not win any of Brooklyn's twenty Assembly seats; they are now leading in three. No Republican has won an Assembly seat in Queens in twenty-eight years; they are leading in one. Moreover, there are 5 or 6 more Queens seats in which Democrats received less than sixty percent; again, this is an earthquake.
The common element between California and New York is that Republicans surged among people of Asian and Hispanic ancestry. These are both enormously broad categories, and Republicans won votes among many subcategories.
The problem facing those longing to be rid of Trump is Trumpism, which at its core is a kind of kulturkampf. Suppose the dream is achieved of "open(ing) the eyes of most Trump supporters to the reality that the former president has become a toxic loser." Then what? Does it automatically follow that all those MAGA voters march dutifully to your preferred mood affiliation? If you don't have those votes, good luck in the general if not the primaries: particularly as Democrats and the media will make serial demands for ritual denunciations of Trump and anything they can remotely tie to Trump - and even things they can't. And many will rise to the challenge. How is that going to play with those whose eyes you've opened?
It's easy enough to understand how Trump won the general in 2016: There are many, many people - I've met some of them, even nominal Democrats among them - who loathe Hillary Clinton with every bit as much passion as the most avid Trump-hater. Many. But, how is it that Trump executed what can only be termed a hostile takeover of the Republican party in 2016...so easily? To hate Trump ever so fervently, and to whatever degree his supporters, makes it easy to avoid facing and answering that last question. Without answers, forget about electoral victories. Sweet dreams.
Trump took over the GOP in 2016 mainly because Republicans were sick of the kinds of standard bearers who had been leading the party unsuccessfully. Trump's takeover will end when Republicans become sick of the guy who has been leading the party unsuccessfully. That should be right about now, but as I tried to make clear in my post, it might not be.
I also tried to make it clear that moving on from Trump is fraught. I see you agree.
Fortunately, there's a potential standard bearer, Ron DeSantis, who might appeal to Trump's core supporters. This makes the process of moving on somewhat less daunting.
It's not a question of my "preferred mood affiliation." The question is whether DeSantis fits the mood of large numbers of core Trump supporters who finally have become disillusioned.
There's some reason to think he will, but we'll see.
You do me the honor of responding. In responding, I do not assume that you seek a conversation. Nonetheless, I continue.
You are correct that we shall see. You are also correct in noting that Republicans, and many indeterminate members of the electorate, had grown sick of successive GOP standard bearers, but that begs the big, "Why?" That hasn't been answered at least not adequately and certainly not in any way that the national GOP leadership - whatever that is these days - has agreed upon. As far as I can determine, they haven't a bloody clue. Not then, not now.
DeSantis, "The Great White Hope," beckons. Seen to be a successful governor who is thought to speak some dialect of Trumpese, the hope appears to be that he will become the MAGA-whisperer. His recent landslide victory is sure to be cited...against Charlie Crist. Charlie Crist, the only current politician more ridiculous than Beto O'Rourke. Whatever can be said of Florida's embrace of DeSantis, it cannot be said that he faced a competent adversary in Crist or the Florida Democratic Party. So, maybe caution is warranted in generalizing that success.
Caution particularly given that he's sure to meet all manner of pressure from the outside and inside of the party to soften his tone - after all, suburban sensitivities, not to mention donor class and establishment sensitivities more broadly must be considered. DeSantis already seems to generate an aesthetic discomfort in corners of the party much the same as the Tea Party, to say nothing of Trump. Maybe it isn't the quality of the standard bearers that sent MAGA voters into the arms of Trump, maybe it's the party, its policies or lack, and performance when in power that is the problem.
What will the national GOP change? What will it repudiate from its own past, policy and performance-wise? From what I can see, it has no clue, because it has no coherent explanation for the rise of Trump. But, the GOP has more to worry about than Trump: consult the rumblings from the Nat Cons. For them, Trump has been too nice, and certainly ineffective. They seem to be looking for someone cut from the same cloth as Lucius Cornelius Sulla Felix; or, if movie references are more to your liking: a Sonny from "A Bronx Tale" or, more to the point, a Michael in "The God Father" who is more effective and more vicious than his old man, in particular by contrast with that movie's Sonny who was brave to be sure, but a blustering fool who got himself killed. And what if the larger mass of MAGA voters is looking for the same? Trump's departure won't change a thing in that case. But, as you say, we will see. Indeed, we will.
As I was going up the stair, there was a Trump that wasn’t there. He wasn’t there again today. I wish to God he’d go away! I saw Trump made some more derogatory comments about RD today. Like a child stomping his foot and demanding attention away from his better behaved younger brother. Seems like a bit of jealousy and not a good look at all. From that I take it he’s probably going scorched earth with no grace this time. If he continues spraying machine fire at his own troops, I don’t think it’s going to play well with many Republican voters. And I think the party apparatchiks are probably pretty tired of him as well. I’m already tired of it. He better stop, or he’s going to lose a lot more support than he has already.
Agree completely about the need to detoxify the party. However, I think the way to go is to just ignore him for now. To the extent DeSantis has to say anything he should just thank him for the past contributions of his Administration and its policies and talk about what Republicans policies will be to get the country going in the right direction again.
Nah. This is an easy test to pass: To all the reporters who ask, DeSantis points out the obvious: I've another hurricane to attend to. The people of Florida first. There will be time enough for all that later. Bye.
Do you think this is a silver lining: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/11/10/republicans-have-won-6-million-more-votes-than-democrats-in-house-races-but-relatively-few-seats/
Here are silver linings: Pending final vote counts, Republicans appear to have surged in California, Florida, and New York, while Democrats only made major gains in Michigan. The California results are obscured by the fact that Democrats were so far ahead to begin with that Republicans can make major gains without winning many seats. This still cuts deeply into the Democrats' margins and makes future Republican victories possible. In LA County, for example, several Democrats in Hispanic-plurality seats have under sixty percent of the vote, though their margins do tend to mysteriously increase as mail-in votes arrive. In New York, the Republicans did better than they have since 1994. Schumer imploded, barely winning reelection as he lost Nassau, Suffolk, and Rockland Counties; this is an earthquake. For the past thirty years Republicans did not win any of Brooklyn's twenty Assembly seats; they are now leading in three. No Republican has won an Assembly seat in Queens in twenty-eight years; they are leading in one. Moreover, there are 5 or 6 more Queens seats in which Democrats received less than sixty percent; again, this is an earthquake.
The common element between California and New York is that Republicans surged among people of Asian and Hispanic ancestry. These are both enormously broad categories, and Republicans won votes among many subcategories.
Very true. Everyone else needs to point
out that Trump is a narcissistic jerk who is completely unfit to be president.
The problem facing those longing to be rid of Trump is Trumpism, which at its core is a kind of kulturkampf. Suppose the dream is achieved of "open(ing) the eyes of most Trump supporters to the reality that the former president has become a toxic loser." Then what? Does it automatically follow that all those MAGA voters march dutifully to your preferred mood affiliation? If you don't have those votes, good luck in the general if not the primaries: particularly as Democrats and the media will make serial demands for ritual denunciations of Trump and anything they can remotely tie to Trump - and even things they can't. And many will rise to the challenge. How is that going to play with those whose eyes you've opened?
It's easy enough to understand how Trump won the general in 2016: There are many, many people - I've met some of them, even nominal Democrats among them - who loathe Hillary Clinton with every bit as much passion as the most avid Trump-hater. Many. But, how is it that Trump executed what can only be termed a hostile takeover of the Republican party in 2016...so easily? To hate Trump ever so fervently, and to whatever degree his supporters, makes it easy to avoid facing and answering that last question. Without answers, forget about electoral victories. Sweet dreams.
Trump took over the GOP in 2016 mainly because Republicans were sick of the kinds of standard bearers who had been leading the party unsuccessfully. Trump's takeover will end when Republicans become sick of the guy who has been leading the party unsuccessfully. That should be right about now, but as I tried to make clear in my post, it might not be.
I also tried to make it clear that moving on from Trump is fraught. I see you agree.
Fortunately, there's a potential standard bearer, Ron DeSantis, who might appeal to Trump's core supporters. This makes the process of moving on somewhat less daunting.
It's not a question of my "preferred mood affiliation." The question is whether DeSantis fits the mood of large numbers of core Trump supporters who finally have become disillusioned.
There's some reason to think he will, but we'll see.
You do me the honor of responding. In responding, I do not assume that you seek a conversation. Nonetheless, I continue.
You are correct that we shall see. You are also correct in noting that Republicans, and many indeterminate members of the electorate, had grown sick of successive GOP standard bearers, but that begs the big, "Why?" That hasn't been answered at least not adequately and certainly not in any way that the national GOP leadership - whatever that is these days - has agreed upon. As far as I can determine, they haven't a bloody clue. Not then, not now.
DeSantis, "The Great White Hope," beckons. Seen to be a successful governor who is thought to speak some dialect of Trumpese, the hope appears to be that he will become the MAGA-whisperer. His recent landslide victory is sure to be cited...against Charlie Crist. Charlie Crist, the only current politician more ridiculous than Beto O'Rourke. Whatever can be said of Florida's embrace of DeSantis, it cannot be said that he faced a competent adversary in Crist or the Florida Democratic Party. So, maybe caution is warranted in generalizing that success.
Caution particularly given that he's sure to meet all manner of pressure from the outside and inside of the party to soften his tone - after all, suburban sensitivities, not to mention donor class and establishment sensitivities more broadly must be considered. DeSantis already seems to generate an aesthetic discomfort in corners of the party much the same as the Tea Party, to say nothing of Trump. Maybe it isn't the quality of the standard bearers that sent MAGA voters into the arms of Trump, maybe it's the party, its policies or lack, and performance when in power that is the problem.
What will the national GOP change? What will it repudiate from its own past, policy and performance-wise? From what I can see, it has no clue, because it has no coherent explanation for the rise of Trump. But, the GOP has more to worry about than Trump: consult the rumblings from the Nat Cons. For them, Trump has been too nice, and certainly ineffective. They seem to be looking for someone cut from the same cloth as Lucius Cornelius Sulla Felix; or, if movie references are more to your liking: a Sonny from "A Bronx Tale" or, more to the point, a Michael in "The God Father" who is more effective and more vicious than his old man, in particular by contrast with that movie's Sonny who was brave to be sure, but a blustering fool who got himself killed. And what if the larger mass of MAGA voters is looking for the same? Trump's departure won't change a thing in that case. But, as you say, we will see. Indeed, we will.
As I was going up the stair, there was a Trump that wasn’t there. He wasn’t there again today. I wish to God he’d go away! I saw Trump made some more derogatory comments about RD today. Like a child stomping his foot and demanding attention away from his better behaved younger brother. Seems like a bit of jealousy and not a good look at all. From that I take it he’s probably going scorched earth with no grace this time. If he continues spraying machine fire at his own troops, I don’t think it’s going to play well with many Republican voters. And I think the party apparatchiks are probably pretty tired of him as well. I’m already tired of it. He better stop, or he’s going to lose a lot more support than he has already.
Agree completely about the need to detoxify the party. However, I think the way to go is to just ignore him for now. To the extent DeSantis has to say anything he should just thank him for the past contributions of his Administration and its policies and talk about what Republicans policies will be to get the country going in the right direction again.
Thanks, Norm. I think you're right about how DeSantis should handle Trump at this time.
It's different, I think, for those of us in the peanut gallery.
Nah. This is an easy test to pass: To all the reporters who ask, DeSantis points out the obvious: I've another hurricane to attend to. The people of Florida first. There will be time enough for all that later. Bye.