Sure, there are seats beside Montana and West Virginia the GOP could flip. There are also a few seats the Dems have a shot at flipping.
But Montana and West Virginia are the two potential flips where the Republican is ahead.
In Pennsylvania, the RCP average has the Democrat ahead by four points. In Ohio, the Dem leads by 2.5 points. In Wisconsin the lead is 3.5. In Michigan it's 2 points.
Of the more than two dozen recent polls reported by RCP in these four states combined, only one has a Republican ahead.
I hope this will be a wave election in which a bunch of Senate seats held by Democrats flip. Maybe it will be. However, the polls suggest otherwise. If they are right, the GOP must have Montana.
Here in Idaho, we see all the campaign advertising targeted for Eastern WA and the Missoula, MT metro. I cannot watch anything without being bombarded with advertising for this race. I'd say 60% of it is from Tester.
But Sheehy is hitting back pretty hard, attacking Tester as a fake - a progressive who wears jeans and rides a horse every six years to hustle Montana voters.
Tester's ads are by far the most vicious, attacking Sheehy as a city boy from Minneapolis with soft hands and Ivy League friends who charges hunters to hunt on his land. But Sheehy's record as an Army Ranger and an aerial firefighter speaks for itself. During the debate, he said, "While I was in Afghanistan outside the wire John Tester was in Washington eating lobbyist steak."
I don't think negative ads have the power they once had and independent Montanans have finally caught on to Tester's cowboy act.
We also have at least a 50-50 chance in Ohio and a reasonable chance in Wisconsin.
I agree. I think we also have a shot at Pennsylvania. Jim Dueholm
Sure, there are seats beside Montana and West Virginia the GOP could flip. There are also a few seats the Dems have a shot at flipping.
But Montana and West Virginia are the two potential flips where the Republican is ahead.
In Pennsylvania, the RCP average has the Democrat ahead by four points. In Ohio, the Dem leads by 2.5 points. In Wisconsin the lead is 3.5. In Michigan it's 2 points.
Of the more than two dozen recent polls reported by RCP in these four states combined, only one has a Republican ahead.
I hope this will be a wave election in which a bunch of Senate seats held by Democrats flip. Maybe it will be. However, the polls suggest otherwise. If they are right, the GOP must have Montana.
Here in Idaho, we see all the campaign advertising targeted for Eastern WA and the Missoula, MT metro. I cannot watch anything without being bombarded with advertising for this race. I'd say 60% of it is from Tester.
But Sheehy is hitting back pretty hard, attacking Tester as a fake - a progressive who wears jeans and rides a horse every six years to hustle Montana voters.
Tester's ads are by far the most vicious, attacking Sheehy as a city boy from Minneapolis with soft hands and Ivy League friends who charges hunters to hunt on his land. But Sheehy's record as an Army Ranger and an aerial firefighter speaks for itself. During the debate, he said, "While I was in Afghanistan outside the wire John Tester was in Washington eating lobbyist steak."
I don't think negative ads have the power they once had and independent Montanans have finally caught on to Tester's cowboy act.
Thanks for the insights. Painting Sheehy as soft seems like a very tough sell.