What happened to Stacey Abrams?

Reality happened, with a boost from leftists who made her a rock star.

Georgia Democrat Kwanza Hall, the leading vote getter in the first round of the Democrats’ lieutenant governor primary, has just endorsed Republicans Brian Kemp and Burt Jones for governor and lieutenant governor in the general election. Hall explained that, as governor, Kemp has made “tough decisions – ones that weren’t always popular at the time – in unprecedented circumstances." He added: "While we don’t agree on every issue, it’s abundantly clear that Brian Kemp is a man of character, a strong leader, and someone who Georgians can trust to put them and their interests first."

Stacey Abrams was already trailing Kemp by 8 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Thus, Hall’s endorsement of Kemp almost certainly won’t make a difference in the outcome of the race. Nonetheless, it must feel like a blow to Abrams.

FiveThirtyEight asks, “what happened to Stacey Abrams?”

Four years ago, Stacey Abrams had the world at her feet. Yes, she had just lost Georgia’s gubernatorial race to Gov. Brian Kemp by fewer than 60,000 votes — but after such an unexpectedly tight contest, she was heralded by the Democratic Party as a promising new leader.

There was speculation about whether she’d be chosen as Joe Biden’s running mate during his 2020 bid for the presidency (a prospect Abrams welcomed), and she was largely credited for pioneering a new playbook focused on turning out Black voters in Georgia, especially after Biden flipped the state in 2020. Though Biden eventually tapped then-Sen. Kamala Harris of California to share the ticket, Abrams kept her eyes on the governor’s mansion.

But she enters this year’s race as even more of an underdog than she was in 2018.

There’s less to FiveThirtyEight’s question than meets the eye. 2018 was a great year for Democrats all over America. Stacey Abrams lost a very close election to Brian Kemp that year.

In 2022, which is shaping up as a very bad year for Democrats, Abrams likely will lose to Kemp in an election that’s not close. The difference in the election climate this year is probably enough to account for much of the likely shortfall in Abrams’ electoral performance.

The rest of the shortfall might be explained by the following facts about what Abrams and Kemp have done since the 2018 election. Abrams steadfastly denied losing that election — not a great move when your party and its media backers constantly denounce “election deniers.”

Meanwhile, Kemp has governed Georgia in ways approved of by most of the state’s voters. And he gained bipartisan approval by standing up to Donald Trump in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election. Kwanzi Hall almost certainly had this in mind when he referred to Kemp making tough decisions in unprecedented circumstances and being a man of character.

FiveThirtyEight points out that, while Abrams will win the black vote overwhelmingly, she is struggling somewhat to maintain the support of black men. As a result, at least one poll shows Kemp winning at least 15 percent of the overall black vote. Kwanza Hall’s endorsement of Kemp might increase that number.

Here again, Abrams may be the victim of a national trend. Republicans seem to have made headway with black male voters since 2018.

It’s clear that Stacey Abrams was over-hyped. If she looked like the future in 2018, it was because the 2018 election presented a distorted view of what the future would look like.

Partisans tend to hunt for emerging stars, especially among female and minority candidates who outperform expectations in a particular election. Don’t be surprised if a certain kind of conservative swoons over successful Republican minority/female candidates who ride a Red Wave this year.

To me, the most interesting question is whether Abrams’ 2022 prospects were hurt by the hype. I think they probably were.

Becoming the heroine of the Democratic left undoubtedly has helped Abrams raise funds. It may also have given Abrams personal satisfaction (and why not?).

However, it also made her a polarizing figure. As a state senator, Abrams cultivated an image as a less than ultra-partisan. But as an icon of the left, it became difficult for her to preserve that image. Nor was she all that eager to preserve it. For example, she bristled at claims that she opposed reparations for blacks.

In sum, becoming a rock star of the left has probably hurt Abrams’ chances of becoming an electoral star in Georgia. However, those chances were slim anyway, and miniscule in an election year like this one appears to be.