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For your last question, Steve Hayward has a plausible theory.

Regarding these polls. I’m still skeptical of the Times and their motive for writing such an article. The election is still months away so none of these public opinions matter; only the public’s opinion on Election Day matters. If inflation is peaking, I’d expect a full court press from the Times on the positive direction that the Biden admin is poised to lead our country if only those pesky republicans could be kept out of power.

This article is simply preparing the space for a narrative of a rapidly improving country by the time voters go to the polls this fall. I hope I’m wrong.

In any case, I appreciate this page and the thoughtful articles between you both

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Hayward's speculation is plausible. The Left has pulled the same stunt before -- "Comeback Kid" and all that. Their problem this time is that the condition of the country is so bad, and the usual sources of resilience so worn down and depleted, that they're going to have to do much more than the usual amount of lying to convince the electorate that improvement is on the way. Inflation is particularly nasty for them, because press lies can't hide it. It belts you in the mouth several times a day. Indeed, going rosy about imminent improvement will just buy the press more distrust and cynicism than it has already bred, and thus weaken the Dems' main ally.

You can only push reality so far before it starts pushing back. We are now at that point.

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